昆仑能源(00135.HK)：中石油旗下的天然气龙头，给予“买入”评级，目标价 9.5 港元
机构：天风证券
评级：买入
目标价： 9.5 港元
昆仑能源：中石油旗下的天然气龙头公司
2015 年，昆仑能源收购中国石油所持的中石油昆仑燃气有限公司 100%股权，成为中国石油天然气业务的融资平台和投资主体、天然气终端利用业务的管理平台。中国石油天然气集团公司是公司实际最大控股股东，间接持股比例达到 57.58%。
昆仑能源主要从事城市燃气、天然气管道、液化天然气（LNG）和压缩天然气（CNG）终端、天然气发电和分布式能源、液化天然气（LNG）加工与储运、液化石油气（LPG）销售等业务，其中天然气销售业务是最主要的收入来源，占比达到 82%，但是在税前利润中，贡献最多利润的是天然气管道业务，占比达到 43%。
拥有优质管网资产，剥离作价有望好于预期
公司优质管网资产主要包括陕京线管道和三座 LNG 接收站。
本次管道出让作价，中国石化 1.42PB，中国石油 1.21PB，均好于预期。但是昆仑能源相关资产目前仍未正式披露出让信息，未来若出让，作价有望类比中石油、中石化情况，好于此前的悲观预期。
中石油资源优势显著，未来重心是“资源换市场”
管道剥离后，预计公司未来的发展重心是通过“资源换市场”，在燃气领域加速扩张。近年来，公司充分发挥资源优势，于 19 年大举收购金鸿控股旗下 17 家燃气资产，拓展下游版图。在此发展思路下，公司近几年销气量增速在 20%左右，高于行业平均水平，尤其在 19 年，公司销气增速超过 25%，而行业平均增速不足 8%。
预计未来公司有望借助母公司资源优势和协同效应，通过收购燃气项目等多种方式增强终端市场拓展力度，未来销气量增速有望保持行业内领先水平。
不考虑管道资产剥离的情况，预计公司 20-22 年归母净利润 53/62/71 亿人民币。对应 EPS 为 0.61/0.72/0.81 元/股，参考竞争对手 20 年估值水平，给予 14 倍 PE，目标价 9.5 港元（8.5 元人民币），首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：管道作价不及预期；天然气销售业务拓展不及预期；管输费下调风险；国内天然气需求增速放缓。
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