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中國奧園(03883.HK):銷售增長勢頭恢復,維持“買入“評級,目標價13.10 港元
格隆匯 08-24 09:15

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:13.10 港元

2020 年首七個月合約銷售增速回正。2020 年 1 至 7 月合約銷售金額同比增長 0.2%至人民幣604.2 億元,顯示了強勁的銷售復甦。到目前為止,公司已經完成其 2020 年銷售目標的 45.8%。公司 2020 年的可售貨值預計將達到人民幣 2,200 億元,目標去化率約為 60%。

城市更新將助推土儲價值顯著增長。截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日,公司土儲總建面達到 4,873.5萬方,總貨值約為人民幣 5,015 億元。計入城市更新項目,總可售貨值有望達到約人民幣 11,602億元,顯示了公司較強的城市更新能力。

2020 年上半年核心股東淨利同比上升 5.9%至人民幣 21.95 億元,略差於我們的預期。公司2020 年上半年收入同比上升 19.3%至人民幣 282.43 億元。毛利率同比下降 0.5 個百分點至29.3%。我們預計 2020 至 2022 年核心淨利將分別達到人民幣 57.01 億元、人民幣 70.21 億元和人民幣 81.65 億元。

受益於先前強勁的合約銷售增長,公司已經累積了約人民幣 1,800 億元的已售未結收入。這些未結轉收入預計將於未來兩年內結轉,顯示了較為穩健的增長預期。我們下調公司目標價至13.10 港元,相較於公司 2020 年每股估值 29.10 港元有 55%的折讓,也分別相當於 5.7 倍 2020年核心市盈率以及 1.7 倍 2020 年市淨率。維持“買入”投資評級。

風險因素:低於預期的合約銷售,商業項目和舊改項目存在不確定性。

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