九毛九(09922.HK)首次覆蓋深度報告：快時尚餐飲品牌擴張的最好時代，給予“買入”評級，目標價19.9港元
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
目標價：19.9港元
藉助“太二”品牌步入發展快車道，快時尚餐飲龍頭地位初顯。公司餐飲行業經營九毛九西北菜數十載，餐飲行業積累深厚。15年開闢“網紅”快時尚餐飲品牌太二開啟第二成長曲線，太二17-19年門店數分別為28/65/126家，19年實現收入規模達12.8億，三年複合增速高達166%，酸菜魚細分賽道市佔率達4.4%，行業第一。太二單店模型優異，精確定位年輕消費羣體，在品類、裝飾、營銷等方面表現出強大創新力，翻座率、投資回收期等核心指標領先全行業，表現出強大的品牌影響力，未來市佔率有望進一步提升。
快時尚餐飲品牌擴張迎來最好時代。我們認為三要素驅動快時尚餐飲品牌進入最好擴張時代。（1）需求端變遷，社交化、年輕化餐飲新需求正不斷釋放潛力，快時尚餐飲在口味、裝修、營銷端滿足年輕人新需求，成為成長最快的餐飲賽道，預計未來5年行業複合增速超20%；（2）購物中心紅利為直營連鎖消除障礙，未來我國購物中心數量有望進一步增長，助力餐飲品牌渠道下沉擴張；（3）餐飲後端工業化浪潮提速，標準化供應鏈體系降低了對後廚的依賴，優化成本結構和效率，將進一步推動前端品牌的擴張速度。
開放、共享機制持續構建核心競爭力，中期看太二千店目標。我們認為九毛九內部開放共享機制是其品牌持續創新的底層邏輯，目前太二、2顆雞蛋等品牌創業團隊均持有15%-20%股權，且具備較高自主經營權，激勵效果顯著。參考海底撈成功經驗，我們認為餐飲行業核心壁壘在於完整的人才隊伍以及激勵機制，疊加行業擴容的大背景下，堅定看好公司持續高成長，我們預計中線維度太二單品牌展店空間有望近1000家，未來幾年成長確定性較高。
投資建議：預計公司20-22年EPS分別為0.06/0.33/0.44元，對應最新PE分別255/44/33倍，考慮到公司未來高成長確定性，給予公司21年55倍PE，對應目標價人民幣17.9元（港幣19.9元），首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：太二開店不及預期，疫情影響門店經營復甦不及預期等。
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