《大行报告》中金:第三批药品集采均价降53% 料中生及石药仿制药业务有望快速放量
中金发表报告指,昨日(20日)内地第三批国家药品集中采购在上海开标,并产生拟中选结果,其中评论55个品种集采成功,平均价格降幅53%。是次采购共有189家企业参加,产生拟中选企业125家,拟中选产品191个,拟纳入56个品种中,最终有55个品种采购成功,拉米夫定产品流标。拟中选产品平均降价53%,最高降幅95%。竞争格局较好的品种,价格降幅相对平缓;竞争格局较差的品种,价格降幅相对较大。
该行表示,第三批国家药品集采规则略有调整,最大可中选企业数量从第二批的6家增加至8家,在提升行业集中度的同时,产品供应也得到更好地保障。其中二甲双胍缓释片、二甲双胍片、卡托普利等拟中选企业数量达到8家。
另外,此次集采采购周期为一至三年。全国实际中选企业数为一至二家的,本轮采购周期原则上为1年;全国实际中选企业数为三家的,本轮采购周期原则上为2年;全国实际中选企业数为四家及以上的,本轮采购周期原则上为3年。其中阿扎胞(甘)注射剂、莫西沙星氯化钠注射剂、左乙拉西坦注射用浓溶液本轮采购周期原则上为1年。
中金提到,药品集采有利於提高行业集中度,规范流通环节。产品通过一致性评价是药品集中采购的前提,实行药品集中采购有利於提高行业准入门槛,提升行业集中度;同时通过药品降价,保证采购量有利於规范药品流通环节,提升医保资金的利用效率;并通过进口替代提升国产企业市场份额。
该行认为,药品集中采购有利於仿制药管线丰富、获取批文速度快的龙头药企,如中国生物制药(01177.HK)、石药集团(01093.HK)、科伦药业等,其仿制药业务有望通过集采实现快速放量,对两企评级均为「跑赢行业」,目标价分别12元及21元。
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