華潤啤酒(00291.HK)：高端化戰略+降本增效淨利獲雙位數增長，維持“持有”評級，目標價 58.0 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：持有
目標價：58.0 港元
投資要點
2020H1 收入下降 7.5%，歸母淨利潤增長 11.1%： 2020H1 受到新冠肺炎疫情影響，公司錄得營業收入人民幣 174.08 億元，同 比下降 7.5%；毛利率同比提升 2.6 個百分點至 40.4%；如扣除產能優化及 組織再造相關的一次性的減值和費用，公司調整後 EBIT 30.79 億元，與去 年同期基本持平；歸母淨利潤同比增長 11.1%至 20.79 億元；EPS0.64 元。 董事會宣佈派發中期股息每股 0.128 元人民幣，派息率 20%。
次高檔及以上啤酒銷量增勢良好，ASP 略有下降： 受新冠疫情影響，公司整體啤酒銷量較去年同期下降 5.3%至 603.9 萬千升； 其中，中高檔啤酒銷量同比下降 6.2%，主要是 Q1 受到餐飲、夜場等現飲 渠道門店關閉影響，而 Q2 伴隨各檔次啤酒銷量的恢復以及喜力品牌的逐漸 發力，2020H1 次高檔及以上啤酒銷量較去年同期增長 2.9%。ASP 受中高 檔產品銷量下滑以及在部分區域推行不含瓶銷售策略影響，同比下降 2.4% 至 2,882 元/千升。
毛利率上升，費用控制得當，淨利潤獲雙位數增長： 上半年毛利率同比提升 2.6%至 40.4%，反映公司產能優化及組織再造工作 已有明顯成效。公司也並沒有因疫情影響而改變既定的目標、投入和策略。 Q2 推出高端產品喜力星銀進一步豐富產品組合；同時持續加大品牌營銷和 活動力度，進一步支持高端化發展及品牌形象的提升，銷售費用率同比提 升 1.4pct 至 16.8%。期內，公司持續推動優化產能佈局，關閉 2 間啤酒廠， 管理費用率較去年同期基本持平。受益毛利率的提升，費用的有效管控， 淨利潤獲得 11.1%的增長，淨利潤率同比提升 2pct 至 11.9%。
維持持有評級，目標價 58.0 港元： 考慮到公司次高檔及以上啤酒銷量以及關廠帶來的降本增效好於預期，我 們上調原盈利預測。預計公司 2020/2021 年 EPS 將分別為 0.77/1.05 元，目 標價 58.0 港元，對應 2021 年 50 倍 PE，較現價有 7.7%的漲幅空間，維持 持有評級。
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