《業績前瞻》券商料國壽(02628.HK)中期新業務價值升逾7% 但估計純利倒退兩成
中國人壽(02628.HK)將於下周三(26日)公布今年中期業績，新冠疫情令內地政府實施限制社交距離措施，抑制了線下保險銷售活動，但料第二季起漸見改善，本網綜合10間券商預期，國壽今年上半年得新業務價值預測介乎365億至380.3億元人民幣，較上年同期345.69億元人民幣，按年增5.6%至10%，中位數370.71億人民幣按年升7.2%，增長可領先同業。
由於2019年上半年股市強勁表現及保險稅收新規帶來稅收返還，帶來了2019年上半年較高的利潤基數，同時2020年上半年股市下滑及準備金補提的壓力下，本網綜合4間券商預期，國壽今年上半年錄純利介乎282.17億至311億人民幣，較上年同期375.99億人民幣，按年倒退17.3%至25%，中位數為301億人民幣按年跌20%。
【料新業務價值升 惟純利將按年跌】
摩根大通估計國壽今年上半年純利錄295.16億人民幣將按年跌21.5%，估計中期新業務價值372.28億人民幣按年升7.7%，料首年保費收入升12%。,而該行料國壽今年第二季純利按年升7%至124.26億人民幣。中金料國壽上半年新業務價值錄367.69億人民幣按年升6.4%、估計上半年純利按年跌25%至282.17億人民幣、料中期內含價值按年升6.4%。
摩根士丹利發表報告，內地第二季壽險銷售減幅放緩，因期內社交距離規則逐步放寬，預期上半年只有國壽和人保(01339.HK)錄新業務價值(VNB)按年增加，料均增8%，預料整體稅前盈利平均難有明顯增長，主因儲備估值率的不利走向以致需要提高儲備，而去年大量一次性退稅的因素則令行業稅後盈利會有較大下降。
瑞信發表報告預期，國壽今年上半年總保費按年增長13%，估計集團今年上半年的新業務價值料增長6.5%，第二季的增長較首季的上升8%稍為放緩，主因線下代理效率並未完全恢復。
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本網綜合10間券商預期，國壽今年上半年得新業務價值預測介乎365億至380.3億元人民幣，較上年同期345.69億元人民幣，按年增5.6%至10%，中位數370.71億人民幣按年升7.2%。
券商│今年上半年新業務價值預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
大和│380.3億元│+10%
匯豐環球研究│375.31億元│+8.6%
美銀證券│374.5億元│8.3%
摩根大通│372.28億元│+7.7%
花旗│371.42億元│+7.4%
野村│370億元│+7%
瑞信│368億元│+6.5%
中金│367.69億元│+6.4%
瑞銀│366.43億元│+6%
海通國際│365億元│+5.6%
按國壽去年上半年新業務價值345.69億元人民幣計
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本網綜合4間券商預期，國壽今年上半年錄純利介乎282.17億至311億人民幣，較上年同期375.99億人民幣，按年倒退17.3%至25%，中位數為301億人民幣按年跌20%。
券商│今年上半年稅後溢利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
海通國際│311億元│-17.3%
花旗│306.84億元│-18.4%
摩根大通│295.16億元│-21.5%
中金│282.17億元│-25%
按國壽去年上半年純利375.99億元人民幣計
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