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中國飛鶴(06186.HK):2020H1業績超預期,高端奶粉增長迅速,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 08-21 14:13

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

核心觀點:

2020H1 業績超預期。2020H1 公司實現營業收入 87.1 億元,同比增長 47.8%;歸母淨利潤 27.5 億元,同比增長 57.3%;經調整後公司權益持有人應占利潤 28.6 億元,同比增長 63.4%。2020H1 公司高端嬰幼兒配方奶粉系列同比增速 73%,為上半年銷售額增長的主要動力。

高效的管理和積極的營銷策略推動公司銷售增長。2020 上半年公司在保證供應鏈的同時,積極舉辦各類面對面研討會(144,000 場線上、 186,000 場線下),通過公司高效的管理和積極的營銷活動,實現產品銷售額的快速增長;我們預計公司在擴大上游產能的同時,藉助品牌和渠道優勢,市佔有率會進一步提升。

預計 2020-2022 年營業收入為 193.3/246.7/310.1 億元。2020 公司依託品牌和渠道的優勢,市佔率繼續提高,預計 2020-2022 年營業收入為 193.3/246.7/310.1 億元,同比增長 40.9%/27.7%/25.7%;歸母淨利潤為 60.1/72.0/91.0 億元,同比增長 52.7%/19.9%/26.3%。當前價格對應 2020-2022 年 PE 為 21.1、17.6 和 13.9 倍;考慮公司奶粉市場龍頭地位,我們給予公司 2020 年 26 倍 PE,對應合理價值為 19.58 港 元/股,維持“買入”評級。

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