《大行報告》中金:第三批藥品集採均價降53% 料中生及石藥仿製藥業務有望快速放量
中金發表報告指,昨日(20日)內地第三批國家藥品集中採購在上海開標,並產生擬中選結果,其中評論55個品種集採成功,平均價格降幅53%。是次採購共有189家企業參加,產生擬中選企業125家,擬中選產品191個,擬納入56個品種中,最終有55個品種採購成功,拉米夫定產品流標。擬中選產品平均降價53%,最高降幅95%。競爭格局較好的品種,價格降幅相對平緩;競爭格局較差的品種,價格降幅相對較大。
該行表示,第三批國家藥品集採規則略有調整,最大可中選企業數量從第二批的6家增加至8家,在提升行業集中度的同時,產品供應也得到更好地保障。其中二甲雙胍緩釋片、二甲雙胍片、卡托普利等擬中選企業數量達到8家。
另外,此次集採採購週期為一至三年。全國實際中選企業數為一至二家的,本輪採購週期原則上為1年;全國實際中選企業數為三家的,本輪採購週期原則上為2年;全國實際中選企業數為四家及以上的,本輪採購週期原則上為3年。其中阿扎胞(甘)注射劑、莫西沙星氯化鈉注射劑、左乙拉西坦注射用濃溶液本輪採購週期原則上為1年。
中金提到,藥品集採有利於提高行業集中度,規範流通環節。產品通過一致性評價是藥品集中採購的前提,實行藥品集中採購有利於提高行業准入門檻,提升行業集中度;同時通過藥品降價,保證採購量有利於規範藥品流通環節,提升醫保資金的利用效率;並通過進口替代提升國產企業市場份額。
該行認為,藥品集中採購有利於仿製藥管線豐富、獲取批文速度快的龍頭藥企,如中國生物製藥(01177.HK)、石藥集團(01093.HK)、科倫藥業等,其仿製藥業務有望通過集採實現快速放量,對兩企評級均為「跑贏行業」,目標價分別12元及21元。
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