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時代中國控股(01233.HK):經營穩健,城市更新加速轉化,維持“買入”評級,目標價 20 港元
格隆匯 08-20 14:22

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:20 港元

投資要點

維持“買入”評級,目標價 20 港元:公司深耕粵港澳大灣區,重倉廣州和佛山,土地儲備充足,城市更新項目轉化進度加速,持續為公司帶來優質低成本土儲。我們預計公司 2020-2022 年核心歸母淨利潤分別為63.5/77.2/94.5 億元,分別同比增長 16.2%、21.6%和 22.3%。我們維持公司的 “買入”評級,目標價 20.00 港元,基於 2020/2021 年 5.5 倍和 4.5倍 PE,較公司的 NAV 折讓 19%,較當前股價還有 50.4%的上升空間。? 盈利能力平穩,業績符合預期:公司 2020 年上半年營業收入 149.3 億元人民幣(下同),同比減少 6.4%,主要由於紅衞村項目一級土地開發收益計入其他收益令城市更新業務收入為零。2020 上半年公司毛利率為26.9%,同比下降 5.6 個百分點,主要由於 1)高毛利業務城市更新無會計錄得收入;2)當期結轉的江門鶴山項目毛利率較低;3)上半年受公共衞生事件影響,公司對部分尾盤進行了促銷。2020 上半年公司核心歸母淨利潤為 15.6 億元,同比略降 8.5%,核心歸母淨利率為 10.4%。公司保持平穩的核心利潤率水平,中期業績符合預期。

土地儲備優質充足,城市更新轉化加速:截止 2020 年 6 月 30 日,公司土地儲備為 2180 萬平米,平均土地成本為 4183 元/平方米,足夠支持公司未來 3 到 5 年的發展;公司已擁有城市更新項目超 150 個,潛在總建築面 積超 5200 萬平米,預計未來 7 年內可以轉化完畢。2020 上半年,公司成功轉化 4 個城市更新項目,總建築面積約 137 萬平米,預計貨值達 425 億元。公司將持續推動城市更新項目的轉化,2020 下半年預計將有 4~6 個城市更新項目能夠成功轉化,持續為公司補充優質低成本土儲。

合約銷售金額保持穩定:2020 年 1-6 月份,公司合同銷售金額和麪積分別為 326 億元和 234 萬平米,分別同比增長 4.3%和 13.5%,銷售均價為 13905元每平米。受公共衞生事件影響,公司上半年銷售進度放緩,2020 年上半年公司已完成全年銷售目標的 39.6%,下半年市場恢復,公司將加快銷售進度。

風險提示:宏觀經濟增長放緩;行業調控政策加嚴;流動性收緊;公司銷售不及預期;人民幣貶值;城市更新項目進展不及預期。

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