金山軟件(03888.HK)2020年Q2業績點評：遊戲復甦提振情緒+WPS C端變現超預期，驅動集團估值繼續抬升機會，維持“買入”評級，目標價50港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：50港元
◆2020Q2 營收同比及環比快速增長，經營利潤繼續明顯改善
2020Q2 實現營收 14.2 億元人民幣，同比上升 49%，環比上升 21%，其中網絡遊戲、辦公軟件服務佔比分別為 61%/39%。整體毛利率為 85%，同比增長4 個百分點，環比增長 2 個百分點，主要由於更高毛利率的自研遊戲收入貢獻增加以及 WPS 訂閲服務業務毛利率提升。綜合毛利率抬升、經營費用率整體下降影響後，公司扣除股份酬金成本前的營運溢利為 5.9 億，同比上升 193%，環比上升 41%，盈利能力繼續改善。
◆旗艦端遊《劍網 3》強勁復甦，手遊方面持續推新品以驅動增長
2Q20 遊戲業務收入 8.7 億元人民幣，同比增長 53%，環比增長 11%，由 於公司不斷進行內容更新及運營創新使得旗艦端遊《劍網 3》強勁增長。旗艦端遊《劍網 3》強勁復甦，公司指引 20 年收入將超 17 年巔峯；手遊方面公司將持續推出新手遊或資料片來驅動手遊業務恢復增長，但未來流水及收入貢獻存在不確定性取決於手遊市場環境及其自身手遊吸引力。
◆WPS 個人訂閲業務表現強勁，雲業務如期實現虧損收窄
2Q20 WPS 業務實現收入 5.5 億元人民幣，同比增長 43%，環比增長 41%主要由於通過持續改進產品服務帶來付費用户數增長驅動個人訂閲服務業務增長強勁。企業授權業務增速表現暫受疫情影響，但公司在信創項目市場份額超 90%，中長期有望持續受益信創趨勢實現穩定快速增長。個人訂 閲業務表現強勁，活躍用户數龐大提供持續變現空間。2Q20 聯營公司金山雲收入同比增長 64%至 15.4 億人民幣，毛利率為 5.5%環比小幅提升 0.2個百分點，公司指引 EBITDA 利潤率有望於年底轉正、實現虧損收窄
◆估值與評級
考慮到遊戲業務強勁復甦、WPS 業務盈利改善超預期、且聯營公司金山雲後期虧損繼續收窄對公司整體盈利改善幫助較大，分別上調 20-22 年non-GAAP 淨利潤預測 63%/86%/104%至 8.5/12.2/17.4 億元。鑑於遊戲業務強勁復甦有利於提振市場情緒，WPS C 端變現空間逐步兑現且盈利能力超預期提升，基於分部估值法，上調目標價至 50 港幣，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：手遊行業競爭加劇；雲業務發展不及預期。
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