三生製藥(01530.HK)2020年半年報點評：業績平穩增長，賽普汀獲批上市，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績平穩增長，特比澳表現搶眼
三生製藥上半年實現營收26.95億元（+2.0%），歸母淨利潤7.02億元（+118.6%），正常化歸母淨利潤7.49億元（-0.4%），經營性現金流淨額7.08億元（+1.2%）；在疫情衝擊下，公司業績依然實現平穩增長。分產品看，特比澳表現搶眼，上半年銷售13.75億元（+15.2%），佔公司總營收的比例提升至51%；益賽普受到疫情影響及競爭對手降價進入醫保的壓力，上半年銷售3.31億元（-33.9%），益比奧/賽博爾銷售4.62億元（+2.3%），蔓迪銷售1.29億元（+19.7%）。我們看好特比澳全年保持兩位數增長，益賽普滲透率提升空間大。
重磅品種賽普汀獲批上市
公司的重磅品種HER2單抗賽普汀獲批上市，預計國內HER2單抗的市場空間有望達到百億，2年內僅有羅氏和復宏漢霖的曲妥珠單抗以及公司的賽普汀3個產品展開競爭，格局較好。賽普汀作為創新藥，將與曲妥珠單抗展開差異化競爭。賽普汀具備在年底進行醫保談判的資格，有望以價換量，實現快速放量。
研發順利推進
上半年公司研發費用為2.54億元，研發費用率9.4%。目前公司共有32項在研產品，主要涵蓋腫瘤、自身免疫和腎科領域。PD-1單抗美國1期臨牀完成患者入組，並開始中國患者入組；IL-4Rα臨牀試驗申請獲得FDA批准，並獲得NMPA受理；IL-5單抗臨牀試驗獲NMPA批准；IL-7A單抗完成1期臨牀入組，正計劃2期臨牀試驗。
風險提示：益賽普銷售不達預期、賽普汀銷售不達預期
投資建議：維持“買入”評級
公司的業績平穩增長，重磅品種順利上市，研發順利推進，創新管線即將進入收穫期。由於公司中期業績實現增長，我們上調2020~2022年淨利潤預測至14.5/16.9/19.2億元（原值13.3/15.0/17.4億元），同比增長49.4%/16.0%/13.8%，對應當前股價PE為15/13/12x，維持“買入”評級。
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