三生製藥(01530.HK)：公司業績符合預期，新藥賽普汀獲批上市，維持“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
事件
8 月 17 日，公司發佈 2020 半年報，疫情背景下，公司整體業績符合預 期，核心品種特比澳持續放量，新藥賽普汀獲批上市。2020H1 收入約26.95 億元，同比增長約 1.90%；毛利 22.17 億元，同比增長 1.5%；公司歸母淨利潤約 7.03 億元，同比增約 118.64%，正常化歸母增速基本持平。
評論
疫情影響下，保持持續盈利能力：2020H1儘管受新冠疫情影響，公司仍保持盈利能力，收入同比增長 1.90%，毛利潤額同比增長 1.5%；歸母淨利潤同比增長約 118.64%，扣除去年同期國健員工股份激勵支付影響及可轉債利息費用等影響，正常化歸母略降 0.4%，基本持平，業績整體符合預期。
核心品種持續放量，疫情背景下特比澳 H1增速較高：核心品種特比澳、益賽普、EPO（益比奧+賽博爾）佔收入超 80%，三個品種分別增速約為15.2%、2.2%、及 2.3%，市場佔率分別為 72.8%、54.5%、41.2%。其中特比澳疫情背景下持續增長；預計益賽普受疫情及競品修美樂降價進醫保影響，增速下滑，長期看好整體 TNFα滲透率提升。
公司產品賽普汀獲批，在研管線進展順利：公司上半年研發投入約 2.54 億元，剔除去年收購產生的一次性研發費用支出 0.54 億元，研發費用同比增長 21.33%。上半年公司自主研發產品賽普汀獲批，為首個獲批的國產Her2 單抗，用於治療 Her2 陽性的轉移性乳腺癌。賽普汀獲批僅 12 天即在全國五省市開出首張處方，另賽普汀具備今年進入醫保談判資質，如果醫保談判將以價換量，快速增長。IL-4α 單抗獲美國臨牀實驗批准；IL-5 單抗臨牀實驗獲批並已開始患者入組工作；PD-1 美國一期臨牀試驗完成入組，並開始中國患者入組；IL-17A 抗體完成一期患者入組，正計劃二期臨牀試驗。其餘多項研發項目進展順利，預計未來 3 年將提交 10 多個上市申請。
估值與盈利預測
考慮到公司業績穩定增長，在研管線進展順利，賽普汀未來存在醫保談判放量預期，給予 2020-2022 三年 EPS 分別為 0.57/0.70/0.84 元，PE 分別為 14.8/12.2/10.1 倍。
風險提示
賽普汀上市後銷售放量不達預期；益比奧及益賽普銷售競爭激烈，增速不達預期；研發管線進展不達預期。
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