《季績前瞻》券商料阿里(09988.HK)首財季非通用會計準多賺17% 電商增速強(更新)
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)將於今日(19日)舉行董事會會議，明日(20日)公布截至今年6月底止的2021財年首財季業績，市場預期受惠疫情下更多商戶把資源投放於線上零售預算，兼且快速消費品及消費電子總交易量強勁增長，阿里巴巴首財季收入將錄強勁增長，本網綜合6間券商預測，阿里巴巴截至今年6月底止的2021財年首財季非通用會計準則淨利潤料介乎316.15億至399.23億元人民幣，較上年度同期309.49億人民幣，按年增加2.2%至29%。中位數為362.53億元人民幣，按年上升17.1%。
綜合15間券商預測，阿里巴巴首財季度收入料介乎1,432.28億至1,505.07億元人民幣，較上年度同期1,149.24億元人民幣，按年增加24.6%至31%，中位數為1,483.63億元人民幣，按年增加29.1%。
交銀國際估計，阿里首財季電商總交易量按年升17%，其中淘寶增速15%、天貓增20%，估計2021財年首財季佣金及廣告收入按年均升18%，主要受惠電商直播及推薦信息流廣告的收入拉動。
【電商業務強勁 受益線上趨勢】
中金預計阿里巴巴首財季收入按年升31%至1,505億人民幣，非通用會計準則淨利潤按年升2%至316.15億元人民幣，亦預計阿里巴巴期內中國核心電商業務收入，包括廣告及佣金收入，將按年升19%至703億元人民幣。該行指出，公司首財季收入受惠於疫情控制後整體線上銷售表現強勁，部分商戶亦願意增加線上渠道的營銷預算，以抵銷線下渠道的疫弱表現，但考慮大促銷日平台優惠幅度較往年大，且釘釘等創新業務相關虧損隨使用量增加，或再次為公司除息稅攤銷前溢利(EBITA)帶來壓力，料首財季EBITA同比增長速度放緩至17%，並低於市場預期。
摩根士丹利認為阿里巴巴將於此周期性趨勢中受惠，基於其在電商行業的領導地位，同時因為強勁的生態系統，預期公司一段時間內保持逾半市佔率。該行亦指，商戶廣告預算將轉向網上，阿里巴巴的廣告資源變現化比率過低。該行預計阿里巴巴首財季收入按年升31%至1,502億元人民幣，旗下平台毛成交總額按年升19.5%。
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本網綜合6間券商預測，阿里巴巴截至今年6月底止的2021財年首財季非通用會計準則淨利潤料介乎316.15億至399.23億元人民幣，較上年度同期309.49億人民幣，按年增加2.2%至29%。中位數為362.53億元人民幣，按年上升17.1%。
券商│截至6月底止首財季非通用會計準則淨利潤(億元人民幣)│按年變幅
麥格理│399.23億元│+29%
廣發証券│378.27億元│+22.2%
高盛│365.15億元│+18%
安信証券│359.9億元│+16.3%
交銀國際│348.84億元│+12.7%
中金│316.15億元│+2.2%
按阿里巴巴上年度首財季非通用會計準則淨利潤309.49億元人民幣計算
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綜合15間券商預測，阿里巴巴首財季度收入料介乎1,432.28億至1,505.07億元人民幣，較上年度同期1,149.24億元人民幣，按年增加24.6%至31%，中位數為1,483.63億元人民幣，按年增加29.1%。
券商│截至6月底止首財季收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
中金│1,505.07億元│+31%
摩根士丹利│1,502.25億元│+30.7%
交銀國際│1,499.15億元│+30.4%
高盛│1,498.86億元│+30.4%
大和│1,493.77億元│+30%
摩根大通│1,489.66億元│+29.6%
廣發証券│1,485.65億元│+29.3%
國泰君安│1,483.63億元│+29.1%
華泰金控│1,483億元│+29%
麥格理│1,473.25億元│+28.2%
瑞銀│1,471.82億元│+28.1%
里昂│1,474.88億元│+28.3%
安信証券│1,470.34億元│+27.9%
工銀國際│1,464.28億元│+27.4%
光大証券│1,432.28億元│+24.6%
按阿里巴巴上年度首財季收入1,149.24億元人民幣計算
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