華能國際電力股份（0902.HK）：2020年半年報點評，基本面改善的季度確認
華能國際發佈2020年半年報。2020H1公司實現營業收入791億元，同比下滑5.2%（經重述）；歸母淨利潤57.3億元，同比增長49.7%（經重述）。
電量增速轉正，市場化比例提升：復工復產加速有效促進公司機組區域用電需求恢復。公司2020H1境內發電量1797億千瓦時，同比下滑8.0%，下滑幅度較2020Q1收窄10.4個百分點。測算2020Q2公司境內發電量同比、環比增速分別為3.7%、12.1%，與2020Q1相比同比、環比增速均由負轉正。公司境內機組2020H1上網電價0.417元/千瓦時，同比下滑0.7%；其中測算2020Q2上網電價0.412元/千瓦時，同比、環比分別下滑1.2%、2.5%。認為2020Q2上網電價回落主要與電力市場化交易活動恢復有關：以售電量口徑測算公司2020Q2市場化交易電量比例約63.3%，同比、環比分別提升6.8個、31個百分點。
成本端改善疊加投資收益貢獻，季度業績增速亮眼：受益於煤炭價格同比下行，2020H1公司境內電廠單位燃料成本0.21元/千瓦時，同比下降7.7%。公司有效控制負債規模和綜合融資成本，2020Q2財務費用21.4億元，為2017年以來單季度財務費用最低值。2020Q2公司投資收益8.2億元，同比、環比分別增長2.4、7.1億元，主要與權益法核算的深圳能源等公司業績增長有關。成本端改善疊加投資收益貢獻，公司2020Q2毛利率20.5%、扣非ROE3.1%，均為2017年以來單季度最高值。公司2020Q2歸母淨利潤36.7億元，同比大幅增長213%、環比提升78%，業績增速亮眼。
盈利預測與投資評級：考慮到煤價同比回落及公司基本面季度改善，上調2020-2022年的EPS分別至0.47、0.58、0.66元（調整前分別為0.33、0.42、0.50元）。當前股價對應華能國際（A）2020-2022年的PE分別為11、9、8倍，PB分別為1.0、1.0、0.9倍；對應華能國際（H）2020-2022年的PE分別為7、5、5倍，PB分別為0.6、0.6、0.6倍。公司作為火電龍頭，具備基本面支撐及估值吸引力，維持華能國際（A）、華能國際（H）“買入”評級。
上網電價超預期下行，動力煤價格超預期上漲，電力需求超預期下滑，計提大額減值的風險，電力行業改革進度低於預期的風險等。
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