李寧(02331.HK)：中報業績逆勢而上，繼續打造可持續增長業務模式，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：強烈推薦
事件：
2020 年上半年公司實現營業收入 61.81 億元，同比下降 1.2%；扣除一次性損益的淨利潤 6.83 億元，同比增長 21.7%，業績增長超市場預期。報表整體穩健，增長有質量。
毛利率穩健，費用控制出色，帶來業績逆勢增長。公司的收入、終端流水，韌性十足在行業內表現突出。同時，流水的恢復趨勢明顯，2020Q2 流水降 幅收窄至單位數，Q3 至今繼續收窄至低單位數下降。從品類看，公司近幾年比較強勢的運動時尚是維持強韌性的重要力量，上半年運動時尚品類流水實現 12%增長。業績方面，毛利率維持平穩，公司上半年 ASP（產品單價）提升了低雙位數，有效的對衝了打折的情況，毛利率僅下滑 0.2。費用端嚴格控制費用，疫情後公司重新評估了公司的各項費用，上半年銷售費用和管理費用下降了 2.4 個百分點，最終帶來 2 個點利潤率的提升。
運營資金效率高，資產負債表質量高，增長有後勁。資金狀況：公司的運營資金狀況持續改善，上半年平均運營資金總額下降 7%，佔營業收入的比例同比下降 1 pct.。經營活動產生的現金流保持淨流入，為 4.79 億元人民幣。淨現金同比去年同期增加 10.37 億元，達到 57.62 億元。強勁的現金讓公司更好的應對疫情常態化，也讓公司有資金去爭取疫情後市場的反彈。存貨狀況：公司的存貨金額較去年同期上升 14%，渠道存貨亦有渠道存貨增長了低雙位數，結合行業情況，庫存狀況合理，同時也表明公司下半年去庫存任務仍存在，但壓力可控。
揚長補短邏輯繼續演繹，公司打造可持續發展業務模式。“揚長”顯效，公司品牌力、產品力提升明顯，未來看好公司在高端市場的份額提升。聯席CEO 入駐後，公司的“補短”工作提速，公司未來在商品經營、庫存管理、店鋪運營、全渠道、成本管理以及組織架構方面的效率都有提升空間，為公司盈利能力的持續上行提供了底層保障。
盈利預測與投資評級：繼續看好公司下半年毛利平穩和費用下行，以及疫情後的明後年的復甦。預計公司 2020-2022 年淨利潤分別為 16.40、21.18、27.57 億元人民幣，對應 EPS 為 0.66、0.85、1.1 元，對應 PE 分別為 39.9、30.89、23.73 倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：國內疫情反覆，消費持續疲軟，行業競爭加劇。
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