微盟集團(02013.HK)：業績超預期，SaaS和營銷均顯強韌，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司披露 20H1 業績公告，業績好於預期。20H1 收入 9.57 億元（YoY+45.7%），剔除賠付影響後收入為 10.50 億元（YoY +59.9%）。經調整歸母淨利潤 0.54 億（YoY +79.2%）。按經調整收入計算，20H1 毛利率同比下降 6.6pct 至 49.0%，主要是毛利率較低的精準營銷收入佔比提升所致，銷售費用 3.87 億（+19.8%），銷售費用率同比下降 12pct至 36.8%，管理費用率同比略增至 10.3%。現金儲備充足，上半年經營現金流有所好轉。
SaaS 收入同比+39.2%，智慧零售、餐飲處於快速增長中。20H1 智慧零售、智慧餐飲收入分別同比提升 701.0%和 69.3%，每客户平均訂單收入分別實現 22.7 萬元和 1.6 萬元，對 SaaS 總收入的貢獻分別提升至 15.1%和 7.3%，智慧零售品牌商户數達 457 家（19 全年為 217 家），智慧餐飲用户數達到 6,532 家（19 全年為 4,602 家）。
精準營銷毛收入同比+156%。得益於區域下沉、區域牌照拓展以及短視頻端投入增加，20H1 毛收入實現 46.11 億元(YoY +156.5%)。淨佣金率 6.5%，廣告主數量+33.5%，ARPU+92.15%，廣告主復投率同比增長 10.5pct 至 68.3%。廣告主發展為中小商家和大商家齊頭並進。在騰訊廣告的份額逐步上升，鞏固騰訊廣告體系內的頭部服務商地位。
維持“買入”評級。預計 20~21 年經調整歸母淨利分別為 1.58 億、2.66億。疫情加速商家數字化，SaaS 業務受智慧零售快速增長驅動，中大客户流失率低 ARPU 高，營銷保持高增長，整體銷售費用率顯著下降。參考可比公司估值按 21 年業績估值，給予 SaaS 業務 16 倍 PS，營銷業務 20 倍 PE，根據 SoTP，對應合理價值 13.2 港元/股。
風險提示。微信商業生態發展不及預期，SaaS 收入增長不及預期，虧損擴大；廣告主預算收窄，佣金率下降，費用增長；現金流變差。
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