丘鈦科技(01478.HK)2020年中報點評：結構優化驅動超預期增長，期待市場位勢提升驅動持續高成長，維持“買入”評級，目標價 18.6 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：18.6 港元
◆1H20 營收大幅增長，盈利改善超出市場預期
1H20 營收 88.02 億元人民幣，同比大幅上升 73.9%，由於 CCM 產品結構顯著改善致 ASP 大幅提升。毛利率同比微升 0.1 個百分點至 8.3%，由 於 CCM 產品結構優化降低人工、折舊等成本，對衝因疫情背景產能利用率不及預期、防疫成本等不利因素。伴隨營收大幅上升，歸母淨利潤為 3.36億元人民幣，同比大幅上升 86%，位於此前盈利預喜 50%-90%區間上限。
◆產品結構顯著改善對衝終端出貨壓力，驅動 CCM 業務高速增長
1H20 CCM 出貨量較去年同期同比微降 1.3%，然產品結構顯著改善驅動CCM 營收同比大幅上升 97%。32MP 及以上出貨佔比由 1H19/2H19 的6.5%/12.2%提高至 28.2%，驅動 ASP 同比大幅上升 99.4%。由於海外疫情持續蔓延、疊加中美貿易摩擦背景，智能手機需求承壓致 CCM 拉貨動能有所減弱，公司下調全年 CCM 出貨同比增速不低於 20%至[-5%,5%]區間。2H20 需密切關注海外疫情拐點，對應下半年整體需求端表現及旺季拉貨動能，公司通過產品結構大幅優化有望驅動 20 全年 CCM 業務實 現高雙位數增長；2H20 伴隨產能利用率提升，盈利有望進一步改善。
◆屏下指紋出貨佔比擴大，然高端屏下指紋出貨不及預期致 ASP 承壓
1H20 FRM 業務營收同比下滑 6.6%，智能手機 FRM 需求下滑背景下公司FRM 出貨仍維持同比上升 5.8%對應市場份額提升；然 ASP 同比下滑12%，由於超薄、大尺寸屏下指紋滲透不及預期。公司屏下指紋出貨佔比繼續擴大，由 1H19/2H19 的 51.0/48.3%提高至 55.7%。鑑於 2H20 高端屏下指紋出貨繼續承壓，我們預計20年全年FRM營收同比高個位數下滑。
◆估值與評級
綜合光學行業維持高景氣度，公司技術服務能力比肩一線陣營、同時產能規模差距縮小，市場位勢上移驅動 ASP 提升大幅超預期，有望驅動其延續高速增長，上調 20/21/22 年 EPS 預測 5%/6%/23%至 0.63/0.83/1.22元人民幣，對應 19-22E CAGR 為 37%。考慮到光學行業 21 年景氣復甦，市場對其估值體系逐步切換到 21 年；參考舜宇及歐菲光一線龍頭 21 年PE 分別為 24/27 倍 PE，給予 21 年 20 倍 PE（對應 20 年 26 倍 PE），上調目標價至 18.6 港幣，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：攝像模組行業競爭加劇；產品結構升級不及預期；華為相關業務波動風險
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