万洲国际(00288.HK)：中国业务表现亮眼，美国业务受疫情影响，维持“买入”评级，目标价 9.0 港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：9.0 港元
投资要点
2020H1 业绩简述：
生猪出栏量同比下降 1.7%至 10,400 千头，生猪屠宰量受非洲猪瘟及新冠疫 情影响，同比下降 20.6%至 22,407 千头，肉制品销量 1,575 千公吨，同比 下降 2.2%。期内，公司实现收入 124.81 亿美元，同比增加 12.2%；经营利 润同比增长 20.9%至 9.25 亿美元；归母净利润 5.5 亿美元，同比上升 18.8%。
中国地区收入、盈利创新高，二季度经营局面稳中向好：
Q2 伴随疫情得到有效控制，复工复产工作稳步进行，肉制品销量恢复 4.3% 的正增长(Q1 -7.5%)；同时，得益于前期产品提价及高端产品占比提升，经 营利润同比增加 44.8%。生鲜肉业务因生猪市场供应受非洲猪瘟影响大幅 减少，生猪屠宰量锐减 61.8%至 327.4 万头，经营利润同比下降 18.4%至 1.02 亿美元，而部分损失被进口猪肉的强劲增长所弥补。展望下半年，由于美 国疫情造成开工不足、劳动力短缺影响产出，预期中美贸易价差会缩小， 对进口量会产生一定影响，业务利润会有所降低，公司正积极开发欧洲和 南美的进口渠道，尽可能保证对中国进口产品的供应。
美国加大防疫投入，业务受疫情影响较大：
由于 Q2 疫情在美国快速蔓延，肉制品消费需求疲弱；同时受到生产成本上 升、加大防疫投入（约 4 亿美元）、以及餐饮服务被关停导致公司对预期 损失作出拨备等因素影响，肉制品经营利润同比下降 45.5%；生鲜肉业务 得益于中美猪肉贸易套利空间扩大带来的出口量提升增厚业务利润，期内 录得经营利润 1.16 亿美元；生猪养殖业务得益于公司积极执行的对冲策略 有效冲抵了大部分亏损。预期伴随美国疫情得到逐步控制，下半年美国业 务有望环比改善。
维持“买入”评级，目标价 9.0 港元：
考虑到疫情的负面影响，公司加大抗疫支出，我们下调原盈利预测，预计 公司 2020/2021 年 EPS 将分别为 0.082/0.112 美元，给予 9.0 港元的目标价， 对应 2021 年 10 倍 PE，较现价有 34%的涨幅空间，维持“买入”评级。
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