《即日市评》恒指随A股升 小米弹 吉利绩後挫
港股今日反覆向上。市场关注中美关系发展，中美原订於上周六(15日)举行的视像会议延迟，该会原订讨论中美首阶段贸易协议之进度，据《路透》引述消息指，会议延迟主要由於行程问题，目前暂未订下会面日期，并指中国将追购美国石油；美国总统特朗普称会在禁绝抖音国际版TikTok後，向其他中国企业施压，执笔之时美汇指数处93.0950，美股道指期货最新升68点或0.24%，美股纳指期货最新升63点或0.6%。人行开展7,000亿元一年期MLF操作，中标利率持平、上证综指升2.3%收3,438，深证成指涨1.9%，两市成交额增至1.15万亿人民币。
恒指高开29点後升幅扩大，最多升405点曾高见25,588点，尾市升幅收窄，全日升164点或0.7%，收25,347点；国指升119点或1.2%，收10,385点；恒生科技指数升36点或0.5%，收7,075点。大市全日成交总额1,287.57亿元，沪、深港通南下交易录得净流入金额分别为16.8亿及22.44亿元人民币。报道指蚂蚁集团已向中证监提交上市备案，港交所(00388.HK)升2.3%。而吉利(00175.HK)挫6.4%，公司公布中期纯年倒退43%至22.97亿人币，及下调全年销量目标6%。
【小米药明涨 惟美团下滑】
恒指公司上周五(14日)公布季检更换成分股。被剔出蓝筹股的中国旺旺(00151.HK)及信置(00083.HK)各跌3.2%及3.8%，神华(01088.HK)随其他煤炭股升1.2%。获纳入蓝筹的小米(01810.HK)及药明生物(02269.HK)各升5.6%及4.7%。同被纳入蓝筹的阿里巴巴(09988.HK)遭淡马锡减持，股价跌1.6%，未能晋身蓝筹的美团(03690.HK)全日股价跌0.7%报218.2元。
中金发表报告表示，就恒生指数公司调整结果，统计追踪恒生指数的ETF资金规模约为198亿美元(约1,535亿港元)，追踪国企指数的ETF资金规模约为48亿美元(约372亿港元)。就结合成分股的权重变化，就恒生指数，测算潜在被动资金流入最大的阿里巴巴、小米和药明生物将出现9.9亿美元(约76.7亿港元)、5.1亿美元(约39.53亿港元)、3.5亿美元(约327.13亿港元)的资金流入；被动资金流出最大的腾讯(00700.HK)、汇控(00005.HK)、建行(00939.HK)和神华预计将出现2.9亿美元(约22.5亿港元)、1.4亿美元(约10.85亿港元)、1.2亿美元(约9.3亿港元)和1亿美元(约7.75亿港元)左右的资金流出。
【A股有支持 内险券股扬】
港股今日主板市宽改善，主板股票的升跌比率为27比18(上日为23比20)，上升股份1,041只(升幅3.3%)，恒指成份股今日33只股份上升，下跌股份16只，升跌比率为66比32(上日为38比52)；大市日录沽空182.16亿元，占可沽空股份成1,048.1亿元的17.38%(上日为17.595%)。
A股造好，中资券商及保险股上扬，中国平安(02318.HK)及国寿(02628.HK)股价各升2.8%及5.2%，新华保险(01336.HK)抢高7.3%；中信证券(06030.HK)抢升4.5%，海通证券(06837.HK)扬5.3%。野村发表报告指，内地上市财险公司确定从第二季疫情的影响中完全恢复势头，其7月份的平均保费增长率为11%。然而，人寿保险业务似乎尚未完全恢复，因为7月份相关平均保费增长为3%。个人寿险方面，在覆盖的公司中，新华保险的保费增长持续领先同业。新华保险7月份的保费增长23%，首七个月则增长30%
展望未来，野村预期内地人寿保险增长将会在下半年进一步复苏，因为疫情的影响将会慢慢减弱。在选股方面，维持中国平安为长期核心持有的股份，因为其保险业务高质素，并相信若利率反弹，新华保险、中国人寿及中国太平(00966.HK)的表现会更好。(wl/u)
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