《业绩前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)中期新业务价值跌三成 受本港业务拖累
友邦保险(01299.HK)将於本周四(20日)公布截至今年6月底止中期业绩，受新冠疫情在全球蔓延拖累，令旗下亚太区包括本港市场、内地访港旅客投保业务(MCV)受到冲击，本网综合9间券商预期，友邦今年上半年新业务价值介乎14.9亿美元至16.04亿美元，较上年同期22.75亿美元，按年倒退29.5%至34.5%，中位数15.87亿美元，按年跌30.2%。
综合5间券商预期，友邦今年上半年税後营运溢利预测介乎29.55亿美元至29.85亿美元，较上年同期28.98亿美元，按年增2%至3%，中位数29.79亿美元按年升2.8%。券商料友邦业绩主要受香港业务影响，基於内地游客赴港受限、香港因疫情持未有放宽管控措施，关注管理层最新营运指引，包括本港、内地及东盟市场等，及关注美元汇价走弱、所持债券收益率下滑等影响。
【港业务冲击大 新业务价值跌】
花旗上周发表报告，称按实质汇率(AER)计，估计友邦今年上半年新业务价值将按年下跌30%，主要受到业务销售及毛利下滑拖累，并调低对其今年股盈预测6%，以反映投资收益压力。该行料友邦今年第二季新业务价值按年跌33%，因新冠疫情拖累亚太区市场、内地访港旅客投保业务录亏损；该行料友邦旗下本港业务今年中期新业务价值将按年下跌58%，受严格旅客入境隔离令所影响；并料友邦旗下泰国业务上半年中期新业务价值将按年跌8%。
瑞银上周发表报告表示，预期友邦今年中期新业务价值录15.92亿美元按年跌30%，料新业务价值利润率降至58.8%，料旗下香港业务新业务价值4.03亿美元按年跌57%，其中本港离岸新业务价值按年跌85%至9,000万美元、估计中国内地业务新业务价值6.33亿美元按年跌10%，料泰国业务新业务价值按年跌5%至1.83亿美元、估计新加坡业务新业务价值按年跌10%至1.55亿美元。
瑞银估计，友邦今年二季新业务价值(按固定汇率计)受到疫情影响按年下跌33%，因此该行将其今年度新业务价值预测下调11个百分点至20%，主要反映香港离岸销售。
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本网综合9间券商预期，友邦今年上半年新业务价值介乎14.9亿美元至16.04亿美元，较上年同期22.75亿美元，按年倒退29.5%至34.5%，中位数15.87亿美元，按年跌30.2%。
券商│今年上半年新业务价值预测│按年变幅
汇丰环球研究│16.04亿美元│-29.5%
美银证券│16亿美元│-29.7%
花旗│15.93亿美元│-30%
瑞银│15.92亿美元│-30%
摩根士丹利│15.87亿美元│-30.2%
瑞信│15.4亿美元│-32.3%
摩根大通│15.34亿美元│-32.6%
中金│15.25亿美元│-33%
高盛│14.9亿美元│-34.5%
按友邦2019年上半年新业务价值22.75亿美元计
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综合5间券商预期，友邦今年上半年税後营运溢利预测介乎29.55亿美元至29.85亿美元，较上年同期28.98亿美元，按年增2%至3%，中位数29.79亿美元按年升2.8%。
券商│今年上半年税後营运溢利预测│按年变幅
中金│29.85亿美元│+3%
摩根士丹利│29.85亿美元│+3%
高盛│29.79亿美元│+2.8%
汇丰环球研究│29.78亿美元│+2.8%
瑞银│29.55亿美元│+2%
按友邦2019年上半年税後营运溢利28.98亿美元计
(ta/w)
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