聯想集團(00992.HK)FY21Q1業績點評報告：PC主業韌性強勁，業績環比改善明顯，維持“買入”評級，目標價 7.1 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.1 港元
◆FY1Q21 營收同比增長，盈利表現超預期
FY1Q21 公司實現營收 133.48 億美元，同比上升 6.7%，環比上升 26%，主要由於疫情背景下 PC 和服務器業務錄得強勁增長。整體毛利率同比下滑 1.1個百分點至 15.3%，由於拉丁美洲移動業務盈利能力下降。由於經營費用同比下降 6%，歸母淨利潤同比上升 31%/環比提升 398%至 2.13 億。
◆疫情催生無接觸經濟，PC 需求端有保障
FY1Q21 PC 和智能設備業務營收 106.03 億美元，同比上升 10.1%，環比上升 25%，由於疫情帶來遠程辦公、教學需求驅動消費 PC 逆勢增長。展望後續季度，伴隨疫情催化下遠程辦公、教學漸成常態化，並陸續由發達國家市場傳遞至新興市場，PC 需求端有保障。鑑於公司龍頭地位穩固，我們預計 FY2021營收端有望維持同比持平甚至實現低個位數增長。
◆移動業務受疫情影響暫時承壓，市場回暖後虧損額有望收窄
FY1Q21 移動業務營收 10.93 億美元，同比下降 27%，主要由於受疫情影響拉美市場需求急劇下降。鑑於公司智能手機在拉美、北美主力市場份額穩固，後續季度伴隨智能手機市場回暖，移動業務有望回暖，驅動虧損額收窄。
◆IDC 業務短期受益雲端業務需求，中長期受益競爭力增強
FY1Q21 IDC 業務營收 16.12 億美元，同比上升 18.9%，環比上升 43%，由於北美科技雲端業務需求旺盛、增加服務器資本開支。鑑於公司補齊主板設計能力短板、推出服務器+存儲方案及中國區低價本土化方案提升自身競爭力，預計 IDC 業務有望實現全年營收端雙位數增長。但考慮到公司持續投入完善產品組合，我們預計虧損額有望收窄，但扭虧為盈尚需時日。
◆估值與評級
疫情衝擊導致移動業務表現低於預期，下調 FY2021 EPS 預測 6%至 0.066 美元；遠程辦公、教學漸成常態化背景下 PC 需求穩定，智能手機市場回暖，同時 IDC 業務補齊短板、優化產品組合驅動未來盈利能力提升，維持 FY2022EPS 預測 0.088 美元，新增 FY2023 EPS 預測 0.091 美元。參考港股硬件銷售可比公司 20 年（對應聯想 21 財年）11-29 倍估值，台股 PC 同業 20 年 9-19倍估值，考慮到PC主業市場份額穩固及數據中心業務前景向好有助估值提升，給予其 21 財年 14 倍 PE，維持目標價 7.1 港幣，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：PC 需求不及預期；智能手機回暖不及預期；IDC 業務拓展不及預期。
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