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華虹半導體(01347.HK):中期盈利前景面臨挑戰,維持“持有”評級
格隆匯 08-13 15:32

機構:廣發證券

評級:持有

核心觀點:

2Q毛利率優於預期,3Q指引略低於預期。公司於8/11日披露2Q20業績,其中收入(2.25億美元)與市場預期一致,26.0%的毛利率優於預期(23.6%)。3Q收入指引(2.36億美元)略低於預期(2.43億美元),毛利率指引(22.4%)雖符合預期(22%-24%),然參考意義已變弱(不同於8英寸廠將折舊計入成本,公司將無錫12英寸折舊計入營業開支)。

2Q出貨量仍未達前期高點。2Q公司8英寸名義產能利用率為100.4%疊加無錫12''產能開始爬坡情境下總出貨量(52.3萬片)仍未達去年景氣高點(52.4萬片),暗示2Q產能利用率(8英寸100.4%、12英寸38.3%)指導意義有限。3Q收入指引對應出貨量或可創出新高,然12英寸產能持續爬坡帶來的折舊壓力將變為主要矛盾。

科創板迴歸預期主導前期股價。市場預期華虹半導體將複製中芯國際科創板迴歸路徑,如以中芯國際科創板發行為參照標準(發行P/B約3.2倍),同時按照1.0-3.0倍PB給予港股估值(表4),公司港股價格將落在19.4-58.1港元/股這一區間(中值38.7港元/股)。

新廠折舊壓力仍在初步反應階段,維持“持有”評級。鑑於無錫廠產能擴充空間仍大(當前產能10k/m,按規劃公司產能將達40k/m),我們繼續維持“無錫12英寸廠房產能爬坡帶來的折舊將對公司中期盈利能力產生持續壓制且仍在初步反應階段”的判斷。我們預測公司20/21年歸母淨利潤分別為1.10/0.55億美元。我們上調公司合理估值水平(PB)至2.4倍(對應20末歸母淨資產)以反映市場對公司的科創板迴歸預期。綜上,公司合理價值為33.7港元/股,維持“持有”評級。

風險提示。全球宏觀經濟不及預期的風險,無錫廠折舊不確定性風險。

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