中國光大綠色環保(01257.HK)：業績基本符合預期，下半年業務將實現環比改善，維持“買入”評級，目標價5.74港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.74港元
公司2020H1業績符合預期。公司2020H1實現收入42.45億港元，歸母淨利潤8.22億元，均基本同比持平，符合市場預期。其中，公司運營服務收入佔比從去年同期的45%提升至2020H1的56%，主要受生物質板塊綜合利用上網電量、生活垃圾處理量和蒸汽供應量的上升帶動，而2020H1公司建造服務收益同比下滑22%。?公司積極轉向危固廢業務。2020年公司仍然有較多生物質新項目的建設，但從過去兩年新籤項目的情況來看，公司已經積極轉向現金流相對較好的危固廢業務。
年內公司有望新納入12個生物質項目於補貼目錄中。根據2020年3月財政部“6號文”，公司符合首批補貼清單申報條件的項目達12個，截止2019年末涉及應收的可再生能源補貼資金約為18億元，預計公司的生物質項目也將在後續批次中予以納入。對於不同類型的項目，採取了不同比例的發放原則，公司新納入的項目有望每年開始回收30-40%新產生的補貼。另外，近期國家有關部門也在計劃解決可再生能源補貼拖欠的問題，如果有實質進展，有助於公司生物質補貼拖欠問題的解決。
我們的觀點：儘管公司受到存量生物質項目補貼拖欠的影響，但隨着新項目的納入目錄有望回收部分新產生的補貼額，同時國家有關部門也在積極解決可再生能源補貼拖欠的問題。另外，公司積極轉型賽道較優的危固廢業務有望在未來獲得回報。根據公司最新情況，我們將公司2020-2022年收入微調-2.0%、-0.9%和-1.3%至101.8、129.2和130.0億港元，將2020-2022年利潤微調0.2%、1.2%和0.2%至17.3、20.1和21.4億港元。我們維持公司的“買入”評級，維持目標價為5.74港元。
風險提示：政府補貼政策變化；生物質電價變化；原材料價格大幅上漲。
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