《大行报告》瑞银料内银次季业绩或启下调股盈预测周期 行业前景审慎
瑞银发表报告表示,MSCI内地银行指数於过去一个月下跌6.7%,跑输MSCI中国指数(跌3.1%),当中招商银行(03968.HK)表现最好,仅跌0.6%;建行(00939.HK)则最差表现,跌9.2%,而南下资金占内银H股自由流通量达23%。至於内银股A股过去一个月则跌1.23%,跑赢沪深300指数。
报告补充,中国银保监会公布内银第二季及上半年纯利料跌24%及9.4%,跌幅高於该行预期之跌7.1%及0.4%。该行补充,由於银行资产质量的可见性仍然较低,该行对中期盈利之增长前景保持谨慎,预期内银第二季度的业绩可能引致市场新一轮降级行动,银行股息和资本也可能面临负利润增长的压力。但短期而言,市场流动性充裕下,中国和欧美经济体的复苏以及对收益预期下降或有利於内银股反弹。
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