《大行報告》中金料阿里巴巴及美團「染藍」機會大 估神華、太古及信置等或遭剔出
中金發表報告，港股本周五(14日)收市後，恆生指數公司將公布恆生系列指數季度定期審議結果，其中便包括港股市場旗艦指數，如恆生和國企指數。由於這兩隻旗艦指數被動資金追蹤規模大、且根據5月宣布的諮詢結果，此次調整會首次把同股不同權和第二地上市公司納入選股範圍，該行認為因此或將帶來較大變化和影響。
該行就可能調整結果預覽，基於指數調整方法，初步測算阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、美團點評(03690.HK)、安踏體育(02020.HK)、阿里健康(00241.HK)、藥明生物(02269.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)排在恆生指數選擇順位前列；如果能夠被納入的話，按最新價格和估算的自由流通比例，靜態測算權重約為3.8%、5%、1.3%、1.6%、1.4%和1.1%。進一步基於198億美元ETF資金規模，對應潛在被動資金流入約為7.6億、9.9億、2.6億、3.2億、2.8億、2.2億美元。
相應的，排在順位靠後的股票為中國神華(01088.HK)、太古(00019.HK)、信和置業(00083.HK)、恆隆地產(00101.HK)、中國旺旺(00151.HK)、新世界發展(00017.HK)，當前權重為0.2%至0.7%不等；若被剔除的話，將引發4,800萬到1.5億美元不等的資金流出。
中金表示，對指數面貌的改變：目前金融板塊在恆生和國企指數中佔比高達約48%和41%，這也是其年初以來大幅落後於板塊結構更加均衡的MSCI中國指數和A股主要指數的原因。因此，如果上述互聯網龍頭公司，如阿里巴巴和美團能夠順利納入的話，該行認為恆指成分股一進一出(固定50隻)有望明顯提升新經濟板塊在指數中的佔比。
該行稱，今年以來，港股通南下資金尤為強勁。年初以來累計的淨買入規模已經超過4,000億港元，超過2019 年和2017年全年水平。從南下資金的流向來看，如果以流入規模佔公司市值比例的變化幅度看，南下資金主要流入醫療保健、信息科技和消費等新經濟板塊，這與年初以來新經濟板塊持續領跑整體港股市場的表現特徵一致。中金認為，在中國經濟基本面和企業盈利逐步修復、港股估值偏低、AH溢價仍處於高位、以及更多科技公司赴港股上市的背景下，南下資金仍或持續流入，而這些有望新納入港股通範圍的標的，將可能受益於資金的流入和流動性的改善。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
