滔搏(06110.HK)：经营持续回暖，数字化全渠道进程加快，维持“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
短期：经营情况持续回暖。我们预计公司终端流水表现略好于运动行业平均水平，2-4 月流水持续改善。阿迪达斯 Q2 披露，大中华区流水 5-6 月流水双位数增长，我们预计公司 5 月终端流水流水实现正增长，6 月流水在线上“618”抢占流量的影响下仍有正向增长。运营层面，公司前期优质、精准的存货管控下库存、折扣压力皆有所改善。
中期：数字化进程加速，推动全渠道融合。早在疫情前，公司已基于提供全方位消费体验、加深用户洞察的目标，确立了线上线下融通的大方向，着手开发 APP、门店小程序。疫情期间公司顺势加速推进数字化应用速度：1）针对价格驱动类型消费者加强传统电商平台运营；2）基于原有线下门店流量，运作企业微信社群、门店小程序（优选一批优质门店专门开设独立的小程序）、移动收银（覆盖 85%左右门店，疫情前我们预计为 30%左右），为消费者提供线上、线下无缝衔接的服务体验。
长期：渠道、品牌、消费者资源共建壁垒。我们认为，公司凭借全覆盖强渗透的庞大直营终端网络，前端广触消费者积累丰富的会员资源，后端与品牌商深度长期合作，双向互相促进形成战略性优势闭环。渠道端，截至 FY2020，公司拥有直营门店 8395 家，布局覆盖全国近 300 个城市，后续在一、二线城市进行大店布局的同时加密三、四线城市布局。运营层面，公司不断探索数字化转型，打通线上线下，协助门店运营减负提效。品牌合作上，公司凭借着强大的零售网络与用户信息资源，积累了丰厚的供应商资源，与国际顶级运动品牌 Nike、Adidas 等维持着长期、深度、稳定的合作关系，目前前两大品牌占收入比例维持在 90%左右。
投资建议：公司作为运动鞋服下游渠道商龙头公司，门店渠道结构持续优化，会员增长，我们预计公司 FY2021-FY2023 归母净利润分别为 24.0/27.7/31.6亿元，现价 9.95 港币，对应 FY2021 PE 为 23 倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：疫情持续的范围及时间超过预期；终端销售放缓；品牌商合作变化带来的经营风险。
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