万洲国际(00288.HK)：不惧疫情挑战，上半年业绩继续维持稳定增长，维持“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：2020年H1业绩好于预期。2020H1公司实现营业收入12,481百万美元（生物公允价值调整前），同比增长12.2%；实现经营利润925百万美元，同比增长20.9%。上半年生猪出栏量1040万头，同比下降1.7%；生猪屠宰量224.1万头，同比下跌20.6%，肉制品销量157.5万吨，同比下降2.2%，屠宰量下跌主要由于新冠疫情使生产受阻影响。
中国业务表现亮眼，美国业务受疫情影响。2020H1由于冠状病毒疫情原因，公司肉制品销量下降2.2%，但得益于中国产品价格和组合调整及欧洲销量提高，肉制品总体收入同比下降0.8%至5,836百万美元；其中中国和欧洲肉制品收入同比增长13.8%和11.7%，经营利润同比增长44.8%和25.9%,实现经营利润417百万美元和34百万美元。同期由于中国和欧洲猪价提升超过销量下跌，公司上半年生鲜猪肉收入同比增长19.5%至54.97亿美元，中国和欧洲生鲜猪肉同比增长56.9%和39%。美国业务由于疫情影响，生产短暂停顿以及防疫成本增加，美国业务总体经营利润下降18百万美元至276百万美元。预计随着美国三季度复工，美国屠宰量将会回升，肉制品销量也将逐步恢复。
预计2020-2022年业绩分别为0.11，0.12和0.12美元/股。预计公司将继续发挥全球布局和产业链的优势，抓住美国对中国猪肉出口量上涨的趋势，增加史密斯菲尔德的养殖和屠宰的营业收入。预计公司2020至2022年的EPS为0.11、0.12和0.12美元每股，当前价格对应2020-2022年PE倍数为8.26、7.67和7.53倍。考虑未来两年盈利能力增强，基于PE估值法，给予合理估值为2020年13倍的PE，对应合理价值为10.95港元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示。1.美国发生猪瘟。2.猪价快速上涨，肉制品和屠宰销量下滑，导致屠宰业务利润受到挤压。3.肉制品及新鲜肉销量低于预期。
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