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《大行報告》中金下調萬洲(00288.HK)目標價至10元 指美國業務受疫情明顯影響
阿思達克 08-12 14:18
中金發表報告指,萬洲國際(00288.HK)今年上半年收入124.8億美元,按年增長12.2%;經營利潤9.25億美元,按年上升20.9%,生物公允價值調整前利潤5.5億美元,增18.8%,生物公允價值調整後利潤3.17億美元,跌44%。

中金表示,萬洲業績低於該行預期,主因美國業務受新冠疫情負面影響較大所致。在美國業務中,美國業務中養殖、屠宰、肉製品三大業務第二季利潤表現均低於該行預期。其中養殖業務因美國生豬供應充裕但需求疲軟,豬價第二季按季繼續下行,第二季單季仍錄得近10美元/頭的虧損,使得養殖營業利潤轉虧3,700萬美元。而屠宰業務因疫情導致的工廠停產及產能受限影響第二季開工率,屠宰量按年下滑15%左右,生鮮豬肉收入亦受疫情影響而按年下降,第二季美國屠宰業務頭均盈利按季下降。

該行預期,集團下半年美國業務有望較上半年改善,中國及歐洲業務料將持續向好。從疫情影響看,伴隨第三季起美國疫情得到逐步控制,管理層預計疫情相關的額外開支於下半年將不會超過第二季水平。從美國豬價周期看,當前亦處於生豬價格低點,未來豬價繼續下行空間有限,因此判斷第二季或為美國業務最壞時期。但考慮下半年基數偏高,且疫情與豬價恢復料將相對緩慢,預計全年美國利潤增速將承壓。至於歐洲與中國業務上半年繼續良好表現,預計下半年仍可持續。

考慮疫情的負面影響,中金下調萬洲美國業務中養殖、屠宰和肉製品全年的盈利預期,同時考慮上半年計提的生物公允價值調整虧損,下調今明兩年每股盈利預測分別33.6%及4.6%,至0.08及0.12 美元,股份目標價下調3.4%至10元,維持「跑贏行業」評級。

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