《大行報告》中金:內地7月手機出貨疲軟 但海外需求恢復超預期
中金發表的研究報告指,信通院公布7月國內手機出貨數據,期內國內手機市場智能手機出貨量2,125.6萬台,按年下降35.5%,出貨量低於市場預期,而5G手機的佔比則繼續提升至62.4%。
該行認為7月出貨量下滑主要因為疫情後的報復性需求消失,市場逐漸回歸常態;下半年安卓和蘋果新機型由於疫情導致延期,7月用戶觀望情緒加劇;國內市場份額第一的品牌華為,由於麒麟芯片的存貨問題,導致下半年備庫存趨於謹慎。
另一方面,中金看到海外的出口需求的恢復非常迅速,根據宏觀數據中國7月手機出口按年增長43%,增速較6月份的30%有所加快,品牌方面,小米(01810.HK)、蘋果、傳音等品牌在海外在近期都表現出擴大的市場份額,而舜宇光學(02382.HK)6月、7月較強的鏡頭月度數據也暗示了三星所在的全球市場的需求恢復。
中金指出隨著下半年5G安卓新機的上市,加上5G版本iPhone 12將在下半年的發布,相信有望見到新一輪5G驅動換機。而在應用程式方面,該行認為禁令導致蘋果在中國區需要下架微信的可能性概率較小,因此對於蘋果在國內銷量的直接影響有限。另外,根據Canalys的出貨數據,留意到蘋果、小米持續在西歐等市場獲得華為讓出的市場份額,看好蘋果、小米持續獲取華為海外的市場份額,而三星有望受益於全球需求的快速復甦。
該行給予小米、舜宇及瑞聲(02018.HK)「跑贏行業」評級,目標價分別為15元、138元及70元。(el/k) ~
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