《大行报告》中金:内地7月手机出货疲软 但海外需求恢复超预期
中金发表的研究报告指,信通院公布7月国内手机出货数据,期内国内手机市场智能手机出货量2,125.6万台,按年下降35.5%,出货量低於市场预期,而5G手机的占比则继续提升至62.4%。
该行认为7月出货量下滑主要因为疫情後的报复性需求消失,市场逐渐回归常态;下半年安卓和苹果新机型由於疫情导致延期,7月用户观望情绪加剧;国内市场份额第一的品牌华为,由於麒麟芯片的存货问题,导致下半年备库存趋於谨慎。
另一方面,中金看到海外的出口需求的恢复非常迅速,根据宏观数据中国7月手机出口按年增长43%,增速较6月份的30%有所加快,品牌方面,小米(01810.HK)、苹果、传音等品牌在海外在近期都表现出扩大的市场份额,而舜宇光学(02382.HK)6月、7月较强的镜头月度数据也暗示了三星所在的全球市场的需求恢复。
中金指出随着下半年5G安卓新机的上市,加上5G版本iPhone 12将在下半年的发布,相信有望见到新一轮5G驱动换机。而在应用程式方面,该行认为禁令导致苹果在中国区需要下架微信的可能性概率较小,因此对於苹果在国内销量的直接影响有限。另外,根据Canalys的出货数据,留意到苹果、小米持续在西欧等市场获得华为让出的市场份额,看好苹果、小米持续获取华为海外的市场份额,而三星有望受益於全球需求的快速复苏。
该行给予小米、舜宇及瑞声(02018.HK)「跑赢行业」评级,目标价分别为15元、138元及70元。(el/k) ~
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