《大行報告》中金:大型內銀信用成本有望短期見頂 重點推薦招行(03968.HK)等
中金表示報告指,昨日(10日)中國銀保監會披露今年第二季商業銀行經營狀況,商業銀行第二季利潤負增長主要源自銀行機構客觀反映風險承受滯後壓力、積極充分計提撥備,及做實資產負債表。
向前看,該行認為大型銀行信用成本有望短期見頂,且確認業績底部。結合政策底部、估值底部、資金底部已經確認,大型銀行業績底部確認有望推動中資銀行重估。重點推薦招商銀行(03968.HK)(600036.SH)、寧波銀行(002142.SZ)、平安銀行(000001.SZ)及杭州銀行(600926.SH)等銀行機構。該行重申行業業績估值分化延續且加劇,疫情作為一次壓力測試,上半年業績顯現銀行間線上經營能力差距。
該行提到,今年第二季單季商業銀行口徑錄得淨利潤4,267億元人民幣,按年減少24.1%,其中,大行、股份行、城商行、農商行利潤分別跌27.9%、26.6%、3.1%及28%。利潤大幅負增長主要源自銀行機構客觀反映不良壓力,顯著加大撥備計提力度,同時加大核銷處置力度。中金預計,大型銀行業績底部有望在未來一至二個季度確認。
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