《大行報告》大摩下調澳門今年賭收預測至按年跌75% 料8月賭收跌92%
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指雖然廣東省取消了對澳門返回當地遊客的檢疫要求,並自7月15日起恢復非旅遊簽證,但澳門7月份博彩收益按年下跌95%,日均博彩收益4,300萬元澳門元。
該行將今年的博彩收益預測由跌60%,進一步下調至跌75%,以反映放寬旅遊限制的步伐較預期慢,但同時仍有將其他省份8月中起恢復到澳門的非旅遊簽證,以及在今年餘下時間逐步放寬的可能性納入在內。該行對2021及2022年的博彩收益預測維持不變,料分別按年增長240%及20%。
現時,該行預期8月份賭收按年下跌92%,日均賭收為8,800萬澳門元。雖然部分旅遊限制放寬,但相信8月份賭收不會回復至3月份水平,這是因為個人遊計劃及旅行團的活動仍未恢復,而日均訪澳旅客在過去數天仍按年下跌95%,每日僅約5,000人。再者,即使有任何放寬簽證舉動,都需要最少兩周的時間讓旅遊活動復甦。
至於今年第三季的賭收預測則由原來的跌59%下調至跌92%,第四季預測由跌23%下調至跌52%。該行續預期貴賓廳的表現會在今年餘下時間好過中場。
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