中芯國際(00981.HK)：營收利潤創新高，折舊費用逐步加大，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價36.22港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：36.22港元
投資要點
營收與毛利率＃符合預期，股權資產增長驅動利潤大幅增長。公司20Q2季度收入9.4億美元，環比+3.7%（指引3%~5%），同比+18.7%。產能利用率達98.6%（環比+0.1pcts），付運晶圓1,436千片（8寸當量），環比+2%，同比+12%。由於晶圓交付量增加以及產品組合改變，毛利率提升至26.5%（指引26%-28%），環比+0.7pct，同比+7.4pct；經營開支環比下降1%，其中一般及行政開支環比減少1.5千萬；股票投資公允價值變動及權益法投資價值增長近5.5千萬，推動歸母淨利潤同比大增644%達到1.38億。
8寸產能緊俏推動成熟製程持續滿產，中國佔比持續提升。成熟製程（40nm及以上）本季營收佔比91%，我們判斷相關製程利用率或持續滿產，主要受益攝像頭、電源管理、嵌入存儲等需求強勁。20Q2中國區銷售佔比為66.1%，環比+4.5pcts，同比+9.2pcts。近期美國出口管制逐步趨嚴，國產芯片對於份額移轉的需求持續增加；同時在5G智能機備貨及新能源車滲透提升下，8寸產能或供不應求，我們判斷公司成熟製程今年或持續滿產。
14/28nm營收佔比微幅提升，提升全年資本支出24億。14/28nm在20Q2營收佔比9.1%，環比+1.3pcts，我們估算14nm產能約為6kpcs12寸晶圓，爬坡略低於我們預期。公司本月初發布公告稱計劃與北京開發區管委會合作出資76億美元設立月產能10萬片的28nm及以上的12寸產線。此外，公司再次將全年資本開支計劃由43億提升至67億美元。公司對下季指引，預計收入環比+1%~+3%，對應約9.6億美元，同比+18%；毛利率19~21%，環比下滑6.5pcts，同比下滑1pcts。我們判斷，隨着先進製程折舊逐步正常化，毛利率或維持20-23%水平。
投資建議：公司產能爬坡與良率提升略低於此前預期，先進製程折舊常態化將在下季開始影響盈利能力，但國產化需求將對成熟製程利用率形成有力支撐。我們預測公司20/21年的淨資產將達到每股1.83/1.87美元；考慮到美國出口管制給公司訂單出貨帶來的不確定性及H股/科創板目前約6成的折價，我們下調公司PB估值至2.5倍，根據2021年預測每股淨資產，調整港股目標價至36.22港元，維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示：先進製程擴產不及預期、外力干擾設備供應、國產化不如預期、疫情影響下終端需求的不確定性。
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