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信義光能(00968.HK):國內對太陽能的投資將於2020下半年提速,維持“買入“評級,目標價12.00港元
格隆匯 08-07 16:29

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:12.00港元

2020上半年的淨利潤同比大升47.6%至14.06億港元,符合預期。期內總收入同比升15.7%至46.23億港元。其中,光伏玻璃收入同比升19.3%至34.88億港元,而光伏電站收入則同比升7.5%至11.01億港元。綜合毛利率同比上升8個百分點至47.3%,主要因為光伏玻璃板塊於期內的毛利率同比大幅攀升11.6個百分點至38.9%。

中國於2020上半年的新增光伏裝機達11.52吉瓦,同比上升1.1%。國內市場預計將於2020年新增約30吉瓦的光伏裝機容量(我們當前的預測範圍為25吉瓦至35吉瓦)。鑑於2020上半年新增光伏裝機僅為11.5吉瓦,我們預計2020下半年國內對太陽能的投資將顯著加速。

鑑於更為樂觀的假設,我們上調了盈利預測。由於較強的光伏玻璃產能擴張,我們預計公司在2020至2022年的太陽能玻璃的出貨量(以噸計算)將分別同比上升18.6%/31.5%/24.0%。我們預計2020年至2022年的光伏玻璃毛利率將回升並分別達到36.4%/39.1%/40.7%。2020至2022年的每股盈利預測分別為0.359港元/0.479港元/0.602港元。

我們維持“買入”的評級並進一步上調目標價至12.00港元。我們的新目標價相當於33.4倍/25.0倍/20.0倍2020至2022年市盈率或6.3倍/5.6倍/4.9倍2020至2022年市淨率。

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