一文了解券商於長建(01038.HK)公布業績後最新觀點、評級及目標價
長江基建(01038.HK)今早股價受壓，盤中曾低見39.2元一度挫4.2%，中期業績受累遞延稅項損失。公司昨日(5日)收市後公布截至6月底止中期純利按年跌51.9%至28.6億元，每股盈利1.14元。維持派中期息0.68元，營業額按年升0.9%至182.41億元。期內電能(00006.HK)溢利貢獻按年減少55%至8.13億元；英國業務貢獻按年減少62%至9.43億元；澳洲業務貢獻按年下跌17%至9.18億元；歐洲大陸業務貢獻下跌3%至4.93億元；加拿大業務貢獻按年跌20%至1.46億元；新西蘭業務組合貢獻跌30%至5,300萬元；香港及中國內地業務貢獻跌58%至1.11億元。
長建表示，期內溢利下跌單一最大因素為重新計算英國業務遞延稅項負債，佔下跌溢利約五成，屬一次性之非現金性質影響。集團去年出售電能逾2%權益，及出售長沙湘江伍家嶺橋與五一路橋兩個項目，錄得一次性收益，惟今年同期未再有同類收益入賬。於今年6月底集團持有現金157億元，負債淨額對總資本淨額比率為13.9%。
【憂前景未明 但匯兌利好】
匯豐環球研究表示，下調對長建投資評級，由「買入」降至「持有」，將目標價由53元降至43元，注其負債上升(至今年6月升至14%)、未來營運環境面臨不明朗及將缺乏併購催化劑。
野村指出，扣除英國遞延稅項重算及去年錄得出售項目收益，長江基建中期實質盈利按年跌19%，受累於新冠疫情，諾森伯蘭供水准許回報下降及不利匯兌影響。該行指，長建維持每股0.68元中期息符合預期，顯示管理層對經常性現金流有信心，與及資產負債表紀錄。該行認為，縱使監管不確定性增加或限制短期估值上調，但長江基建風險回報對尋求高息與長期增長潛力投資者屬吸引，美元近期弱勢亦為下半年業績帶來潛在上行空間，因公司逾九成實質盈利來自非美元地區。該行下調長江基建目標價，由68.8元降至52.3元，維持「買入」評級。
高盛表示，維持對長江基建目標價52元及「中性」評級不變，該行認為長建未來1至2年維持每股2.46元派息問題不大，相等於現股價6厘股息率。該行指公司債務比率低於歷史平均為取得新項目提供空間，與及手上現金相等每股6.2元且無短期債務隱憂。但英國與澳洲項目協議於今年至2023年重訂則影響盈利，通脹潛在低迷及宏觀不確定性亦限制公司盈利，導致未來2至3年派息增長受影響。
本網最新綜合8間券商其投資評級及目標價，3間券商下調目標價，5間給予「買入」或「增持」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞銀│買入│58元
大和│買入│56.2元
野村│買入│68.8元->52.3元
高盛│中性│52元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│50元
摩根大通│增持│48.5元
花旗│買入│54.5元->48.5元
匯豐環球研究│買入->持有│53->43元
--------------------------
券商│觀點
瑞銀│中期業績受累遞延稅項損失
大和│中期業績疫弱，經常性利潤跌16%
野村│美元疲弱為下半年業績提供上行空間
高盛│業績符預期，料派息維持
摩根士丹利│面臨更多監管風險，料全年派息微增
摩根大通│下半年盈利將受惠匯兌
花旗│中期業績遜預期，料6.1厘股息率可維持
匯豐環球研究│料今年業務波動，將缺乏併購催化劑
(fc/w)
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