野村:削長建(1038.HK)目標價至52.3港元 料派息前景維持穩定
野村發表研究報告指,長江基建集團(1038.HK)今年上半年純利按年跌52%,主要由於英國業務之遞延税項負債需重新計算,以及沒有一次性的收益。撇除相關因素,集團利潤將按年下跌19%,主要來自新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情的影響。不過,野村下調長建目標價24%,由原來的68.8港元降至52.3港元,評級維持買入。
野村表示,儘管盈利受壓和前景不確定,管理層仍對其現金流和資產負債表充滿信心。該行預計,集團將會繼續努力維持資產負債表,為可能會出現的潛在資產出售作準備,同時亦會保持穩定的股息前景。雖然存在監管方面的不確定性,或會限制近期的估值,但長建對於尋求股息收益率和長期增長潛力的投資者而言,相對具有吸引力。
該行又指,長建有90%的基礎利潤均非美元計價,因此最近的美元疲軟亦可能推動下半年有增長潛力。由於利率下行,加上監管機構立場強硬,其他資產未來將面臨收益降低的隱患。該行將集團2020年的盈利預測下調27%,明年的盈利預測亦下調13%,以反映今年上半年的一次性項目,以及英國和澳洲業務收益較低。

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