一文了解券商於长建(01038.HK)公布业绩後最新观点、评级及目标价
长江基建(01038.HK)今早股价受压，盘中曾低见39.2元一度挫4.2%，中期业绩受累递延税项损失。公司昨日(5日)收市後公布截至6月底止中期纯利按年跌51.9%至28.6亿元，每股盈利1.14元。维持派中期息0.68元，营业额按年升0.9%至182.41亿元。期内电能(00006.HK)溢利贡献按年减少55%至8.13亿元；英国业务贡献按年减少62%至9.43亿元；澳洲业务贡献按年下跌17%至9.18亿元；欧洲大陆业务贡献下跌3%至4.93亿元；加拿大业务贡献按年跌20%至1.46亿元；新西兰业务组合贡献跌30%至5,300万元；香港及中国内地业务贡献跌58%至1.11亿元。
长建表示，期内溢利下跌单一最大因素为重新计算英国业务递延税项负债，占下跌溢利约五成，属一次性之非现金性质影响。集团去年出售电能逾2%权益，及出售长沙湘江伍家岭桥与五一路桥两个项目，录得一次性收益，惟今年同期未再有同类收益入账。於今年6月底集团持有现金157亿元，负债净额对总资本净额比率为13.9%。
【忧前景未明 但汇兑利好】
汇丰环球研究表示，下调对长建投资评级，由「买入」降至「持有」，将目标价由53元降至43元，注其负债上升(至今年6月升至14%)、未来营运环境面临不明朗及将缺乏并购催化剂。
野村指出，扣除英国递延税项重算及去年录得出售项目收益，长江基建中期实质盈利按年跌19%，受累於新冠疫情，诺森伯兰供水准许回报下降及不利汇兑影响。该行指，长建维持每股0.68元中期息符合预期，显示管理层对经常性现金流有信心，与及资产负债表纪录。该行认为，纵使监管不确定性增加或限制短期估值上调，但长江基建风险回报对寻求高息与长期增长潜力投资者属吸引，美元近期弱势亦为下半年业绩带来潜在上行空间，因公司逾九成实质盈利来自非美元地区。该行下调长江基建目标价，由68.8元降至52.3元，维持「买入」评级。
高盛表示，维持对长江基建目标价52元及「中性」评级不变，该行认为长建未来1至2年维持每股2.46元派息问题不大，相等於现股价6厘股息率。该行指公司债务比率低於历史平均为取得新项目提供空间，与及手上现金相等每股6.2元且无短期债务隐忧。但英国与澳洲项目协议於今年至2023年重订则影响盈利，通胀潜在低迷及宏观不确定性亦限制公司盈利，导致未来2至3年派息增长受影响。
本网最新综合8间券商其投资评级及目标价，3间券商下调目标价，5间给予「买入」或「增持」评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
瑞银│买入│58元
大和│买入│56.2元
野村│买入│68.8元->52.3元
高盛│中性│52元
摩根士丹利│与大市同步│50元
摩根大通│增持│48.5元
花旗│买入│54.5元->48.5元
汇丰环球研究│买入->持有│53->43元
--------------------------
券商│观点
瑞银│中期业绩受累递延税项损失
大和│中期业绩疫弱，经常性利润跌16%
野村│美元疲弱为下半年业绩提供上行空间
高盛│业绩符预期，料派息维持
摩根士丹利│面临更多监管风险，料全年派息微增
摩根大通│下半年盈利将受惠汇兑
花旗│中期业绩逊预期，料6.1厘股息率可维持
汇丰环球研究│料今年业务波动，将缺乏并购催化剂
(fc/w)
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