映客(03700.HK)盈利預喜點評:直播業務穩健,社交價值逐漸釋放
機構:浦發銀行
7月30日,映客發佈了盈利預喜公告,公司預計今年上半年收入同比增長45-50%,環比增長約20-25%;上半年税後淨利潤為5500-8500萬元(去年同期錄得虧損)。公司業績逐步改善,主要由於創新音視頻產品收入快速增長以及主營直播業務保持穩健。公司繼續依靠“互動娛樂+社交”的雙引擎,不斷完善自身業務生態。
直播業務提供穩健現金流。今年上半年,受疫情影響,在線娛樂需求激增。根據CNNIC數據統計,2020年3月我國直播用户規模達到5.6億人,較2018年底增加1.63億,滲透率約62%。短視頻巨頭的切入加劇了直播行業競爭,公司主要通過差異化路線,圍繞“互動娛樂”垂直領域發力,更加重視長尾用户。近期,公司也與亞洲電視達成獨家戰略合作,成為第32屆亞洲小姐選拔賽事的獨家網絡直播平台,進一步豐富了直播內容生態。此外,在直播帶貨風口下,映客也佈局“直播+電商”的模式,探索直播打賞外的盈利模式。
社交價值逐漸釋放。公司在社交領域進行廣泛佈局,其中明星產品包括興趣社交產品積目和相親社交產品對緣。根據《互聯網週刊》研究院APP榜單統計,積目位於興趣社交平台榜單第2位、對緣位居婚戀社交平台榜單第7位。Z世代是積目的主要用户,95-00後用户佔比超過80%,主打潮流文化的品牌調性。Z世代的興趣社交需求旺盛,該細分領域未來增長潛力巨大。積目目前的日活已過百萬,次日留存約55%。公司計劃在今年三季度開始加大對積目APP的市場推廣,有望將進一步推動用户數的增長。商業變現方面,積目在2019年底就開始推出訂閲付費模式,在今年6月上線了直播功能,保持相對均衡的發展模式。對緣,則主要通過雲相親模式,搶佔下沉婚戀市場,對緣目前日活用户約26萬。
此外,公司還推出了面向中老年人的社交產品老柚、二次元興趣社區StarStar等產品,從而滿足不同用户羣體的娛樂及社交需求。公司圍繞垂直社交領域的多矩陣佈局,將成為公司新的增長點。隨着社交產品的快速成長,公司收入將更加多元化,從而減少對單一APP的過度依賴。2019年主APP映客直播貢獻收入佔比為84%,2018年為97%。
公司現金儲備充沛。截至2019年底,公司現金及現金等價物,存款和銀行理財餘額合計約29億人民幣。公司目前市值約26億人民幣(29.3億港元)。此外,公司今年已進行多次股票回購,公司充足的現金儲備,也為持續回購和潛在的市場併購提供資金保障。
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