信義光能 (00968.HK)：業績接近預告上限，盈利能力略超預期，給予“買入”評級，目標價10.65 港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.65 港元
公司公佈中報，2020H1實現收入46.22億港元（同比+15.7%），歸母淨利潤14.06億港元（+47.6%）；利潤接近業績預告（12.85-14.28億港元）上限。
核心觀點
光伏玻璃盈利強勁，未來6個季度產能快速釋放。光伏玻璃實現營收34.9億港元（+19.3%），毛利率為38.9%（+11.6pct），毛利率改善主要為單價同比提升3-5%（尤其Q1價格較高）、天然氣（同比下降不到10%）和純鹼價格大幅下降（同比下降10%+）、薄玻璃佔比的提升和生產效率提升。受疫情影響，公司產線相較原計劃有所推遲，目前廣西北海2*1000t/d產線分別在6和8月投產，明年蕪湖各季度投產4*1000t/d產線，2021年底產能達到13800t/d，相比2020H1增加77%。同時，公司7月份在張家港簽約8億美元投資項目，在未來兩年投資繼續加碼。
光伏電站價值有望重估，資金成本優勢助力規模擴張。截止2020H1，公司擁有2920MW電站，大型地面電站為2764MW；其中補貼項目佔比為93%（39%補貼1-7批目錄內，54%補貼目錄外）；若電站補貼及時發放，公司電站有望重估。此外，公司歷史銀行借款年利率在4.2%以下，作為民企資金實力出眾；隨着明年國內平價全面到來，公司有望藉助資金和EPC優勢積累加速擴張。
費用率顯著優化，規模效應顯成效。2020H1公司銷售費用率為2.93%（-0.19pct)、管理費用率為4.50%（-1pct）、財務費用率為2.51%（-1.36pct），費用持續改善。經營活動現金流淨額為12.6億港元（+158%）；ROE為19.4%（+3.2pct）；存貨週轉天數為34天，與去年基本持平（31天）。
財務預測與投資建議
我們預測公司2020-2022年每股收益分別為0.35、0.43、0.49元（原預測為0.30/0.37/0.39元，主要系股本變化和價格毛利率上調），根據分部估值對應估值為791億元市值（即870億港元），目標價為10.65港元，上調至“買入”評級。
風險提示
原料價格大幅波動；終端需求不及預期。
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