大和:內銀股首選招行(3968.HK)及建行(0939.HK)
大和發表研究報告指,預料中國銀行業下半年的不良貸款形成率或會接近高位,而6月份的內銀不良貸款形成率或按年增長18個基點至1.15%,主要由於第二季的零售貸款質素因新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情而惡化。
大和表示,不良貸款形成率的潛在風險因素可能包括工業利潤在外部挑戰下的不確定性、中小企貸款條件缺乏能見度,以及監管收緊及讓利要求等。不過,信用卡和零售消費貸款的貿量在4月份起一直在迅速恢復,相信零售銀行下半年將較為安全。
該行預料,商業銀行第二季的撥備前利潤(PPOP)將按年增長5%,而減值損失將按年升15%,導致今年第二季利潤按年跌2%。該行首選為招商銀行(3968.HK)、建設銀行(0939.HK),因為該兩間銀行的資產質素相對良好,而且具有出色的風險管理能力。
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