《業績前瞻》券商料長和(00001.HK)中期經調整純利跌28% 聚焦營運指引及派息(更新)
長和(00001.HK)將於本周四(8月6日)公布截至6月底止中期業績，市場料新冠疫情在全球蔓延，拖累集團旗下零售、港口、能源業務，雖然旗下電訊及基建業務仍然穩固，本網綜合3間券商預測，按IFRS 16前(新國際會計準則─第16號租賃準則之前)基準，估計長和今年上半年普通股股東應佔溢利(經調整純利)介乎132.26億至134.61億元，較2019年同期182億元，按年下滑26%至28.6%，中位數131.63億元，按年跌27.7%。
綜合3間券商料長和上半年除息稅前溢利(EBIT)料介乎238.46億至268.83億元，較去年同期342.38億元，按年減少21.5%至30.4%。市場亦關注長和最新營運指引、未來會否出售旗下鐵塔資產及保持派息等，綜合4間券商預測，長和每股中期息料介乎0.74至0.87元，較去年同期按年跌15%至持平，中位數為0.79元，按年下滑9.2%。
【料溢利倒退 零售港口弱】
高盛表示按IFRS16前基準，料長和今年上半年普通股股東應佔溢利按年跌27.3%至132.26億元，包括來自沃達豐和記澳洲合併的72億元收益，與及赫斯基能源與英國延後稅務損失合共約40億元。扣除上述特殊項目的核心盈利料按年跌一半至90億元，主要受赫斯基能源虧損，及新冠疫情影響零售及港口業務。該行亦料長和中期EBIT按年跌30.4%至238.46億元。
高盛認為，長和上半年基建及電訊業務相對受新冠疫情影響較輕，惟兩者EBIT料按年跌7%至19%，受匯兌及經營去槓桿影響，但油價回穩及歐亞經濟過去一至兩個月恢復，相信長和最艱難時間經已過去。該行預期市場關注長和業務復甦進度，與及潛在併購進展更新。該行亦預期市場關注長和會否保持派息金額，暫料長和中期派息維持每股0.87元不變。
摩根大預期，按IFRS16前基準，長和普通股股東應佔中期溢利按年跌28%至131億元，料其派息比率會由18%升至23%，料每股中期息為0.8元，主要受到赫斯基能源業績所拖累(料相關業務虧損47億元)，維持對其「增持」評級，將目標價由87元降至83元。
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綜合4間券商預測，按IFRS 16前基準，估計長和今年上半年普通股股東應佔溢利(經調整純利)介乎132.26億至134.61億元，較2019年同期182億元，按年下滑26%至28.6%，中位數131.63億元，按年跌27.7%。
券商│今年上半年IFRS 16前普通股股東應佔溢利(經調整純利)預測│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│134.61億元│-26%
高盛│132.26億元│-27.3%
摩根大通│131億元│-28%
瑞銀│130億元│-28.6%
按長和去年上半年IFRS 16(前普通股股東應佔溢利182億元計算
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綜合3間券商料長和上半年除息稅前溢利(EBIT)料介乎238.46億至268.83億元，較去年同期342.38億元，按年減少21.5%至30.4%。
券商│今年上半年EBIT預測│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│268.83億元│-21.5%
瑞銀│261億元│-23.8%
高盛│238.46億元│-30.4%
按長和去年上半年EBIT的342.38億元計算
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綜合4間券商預測，長和每股中期息料介乎0.74至0.87元，較去年同期按年跌15%至持平，中位數為0.79元，按年下滑9.2%。
券商│今年中期息預測│按年變幅
高盛│0.87元│持平
摩根大通│0.8元│-8%
美銀│0.78元│-10.3%
摩根士丹利│0.74元│-15%
按長和去年中期息0.87元推算
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