《业绩前瞻》券商料长和(00001.HK)中期经调整纯利跌28% 聚焦营运指引及派息(更新)
长和(00001.HK)将於本周四(8月6日)公布截至6月底止中期业绩，市场料新冠疫情在全球蔓延，拖累集团旗下零售、港口、能源业务，虽然旗下电讯及基建业务仍然稳固，本网综合3间券商预测，按IFRS 16前(新国际会计准则─第16号租赁准则之前)基准，估计长和今年上半年普通股股东应占溢利(经调整纯利)介乎132.26亿至134.61亿元，较2019年同期182亿元，按年下滑26%至28.6%，中位数131.63亿元，按年跌27.7%。
综合3间券商料长和上半年除息税前溢利(EBIT)料介乎238.46亿至268.83亿元，较去年同期342.38亿元，按年减少21.5%至30.4%。市场亦关注长和最新营运指引、未来会否出售旗下铁塔资产及保持派息等，综合4间券商预测，长和每股中期息料介乎0.74至0.87元，较去年同期按年跌15%至持平，中位数为0.79元，按年下滑9.2%。
【料溢利倒退 零售港口弱】
高盛表示按IFRS16前基准，料长和今年上半年普通股股东应占溢利按年跌27.3%至132.26亿元，包括来自沃达丰和记澳洲合并的72亿元收益，与及赫斯基能源与英国延後税务损失合共约40亿元。扣除上述特殊项目的核心盈利料按年跌一半至90亿元，主要受赫斯基能源亏损，及新冠疫情影响零售及港口业务。该行亦料长和中期EBIT按年跌30.4%至238.46亿元。
高盛认为，长和上半年基建及电讯业务相对受新冠疫情影响较轻，惟两者EBIT料按年跌7%至19%，受汇兑及经营去杠杆影响，但油价回稳及欧亚经济过去一至两个月恢复，相信长和最艰难时间经已过去。该行预期市场关注长和业务复苏进度，与及潜在并购进展更新。该行亦预期市场关注长和会否保持派息金额，暂料长和中期派息维持每股0.87元不变。
摩根大预期，按IFRS16前基准，长和普通股股东应占中期溢利按年跌28%至131亿元，料其派息比率会由18%升至23%，料每股中期息为0.8元，主要受到赫斯基能源业绩所拖累(料相关业务亏损47亿元)，维持对其「增持」评级，将目标价由87元降至83元。
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综合4间券商预测，按IFRS 16前基准，估计长和今年上半年普通股股东应占溢利(经调整纯利)介乎132.26亿至134.61亿元，较2019年同期182亿元，按年下滑26%至28.6%，中位数131.63亿元，按年跌27.7%。
券商│今年上半年IFRS 16前普通股股东应占溢利(经调整纯利)预测│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│134.61亿元│-26%
高盛│132.26亿元│-27.3%
摩根大通│131亿元│-28%
瑞银│130亿元│-28.6%
按长和去年上半年IFRS 16(前普通股股东应占溢利182亿元计算
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综合3间券商料长和上半年除息税前溢利(EBIT)料介乎238.46亿至268.83亿元，较去年同期342.38亿元，按年减少21.5%至30.4%。
券商│今年上半年EBIT预测│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│268.83亿元│-21.5%
瑞银│261亿元│-23.8%
高盛│238.46亿元│-30.4%
按长和去年上半年EBIT的342.38亿元计算
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综合4间券商预测，长和每股中期息料介乎0.74至0.87元，较去年同期按年跌15%至持平，中位数为0.79元，按年下滑9.2%。
券商│今年中期息预测│按年变幅
高盛│0.87元│持平
摩根大通│0.8元│-8%
美银│0.78元│-10.3%
摩根士丹利│0.74元│-15%
按长和去年中期息0.87元推算
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