《业绩前瞻》券商料恒生(00011.HK)中期经调整盈利跌16%至37% 聚焦派息
恒生银行(00011.HK)将於下周一(8月3日)公布中期业绩，新冠疫情蔓延经济活动，料集团收入及信贷拨备承压，净息差收窄亦会拖累净利息收入表现，本网综合三间券商预测料恒生今年上半年经调整盈利(已就额外一级资本票据相关扣减作调整之盈利)介乎84.07亿元至112.22亿元，较2019年同期133.47亿元，按年跌16%至37%。
综合3间券商预测料恒生银行今年上半年净利息收入预测介乎148.57亿元至153.48亿元，按年跌3.2%至6.3%。由於环球银行汇控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)已宣布暂停派息，市场关注本港银行中期派息情况，本网综合3间测料恒生银行今年每股中期息预测介1.708元至2.2元，较2019年同期2.8元按年跌21.4%至39%。
【料盈利倒退 将聚焦派息】
摩根士丹利估计恒生银行今年上半年净利息收入按年跌6%至148.57亿元，主要受净息差收窄至1.88%所拖累(对比2019年上半年及下半年各2.1%及2.11%)及贷款增长影响，料今年上半年总体非利息收入录61.55亿元按年跌6%(按半年升31%)，因全球经活动走弱，料期内信贷损失变动及其他减值提拨按年升2.24倍至16.52亿元，估计今年上半年除税前溢利按年倒退17%至131.88亿元，料恒生今年上半年经调整纯利按年下滑16.9%至110.89亿元，料每股中期息按年跌21%至2.2元。该行料恒生中期成本效益比率为29.2%、而普通股权一级资本比率可升至16.6%。
高盛料恒生今年上半年经调整纯利按年跌37%、估计中期净利息收入按年跌5.7%、料贷款按年增长3.7%、估手续费收入按年跌7.6%、料拨备前经营利润(PPoP)按年下滑21.4%。
而瑞银估计料恒生银行中期收入及信贷拨备承压，净息差收窄亦会拖累净利息收入表现，估恒生上半年经调整纯利按年走低16%至112.22亿元、料净利息收入跌3.2%，估计净息差降至2.04%，成本效益比率30.2%，料不良贷款比率0.25%(对比2019年上半年0.11%)，料每股中期息按年跌21%至2.2元。
券商│今年上半年经调整盈利预测(港元)│按年变幅
瑞银│112.22亿元│-16%
摩根士丹利│110.89亿元│-16.9%
高盛│84.07亿元│-37%
按恒生银行2019年上半年经调整纯利133.47亿元计
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综合3间券商预测料恒生银行今年上半年净利息收入预测介乎148.57亿元至153.48亿元，按年跌3.2%至6.3%。
券商│今年上半年净利息收入(港元)│按年变幅
瑞银│153.48亿元│-3.2%
高盛│149.5亿元│-5.7%
摩根士丹利│148.57亿元│-6.3%
按恒生银行2019年上半年净利息收入158.53亿元计
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此外，本网综合3间测料恒生银行今年每股中期息预测介1.708元至2.2元，较2019年同期2.8元按年跌21.4%至39%。
券商│今年每股中期息预测(港元)│按年变幅
瑞银│2.2元│-21.4%
摩根士丹利│2.2元│-21.4%
高盛│1.708元│-39%
按恒生银行2019年上半年每股派息2.8元计
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