《业绩前瞻》券商料汇控(00005.HK)中期税前利润跌逾五成 聚焦业务重组计划
汇丰控股(00005.HK)近日股价持续向下，昨日股价曾低见34.1元创逾11年新低，集团将於下周一(8月3日)公布截至今年6月底止中期业绩，受新冠疫情蔓延全球影响经济活动，令信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备趋升，本网综合3间券商预测，汇控今年上半年列帐基准除税前利润料介乎53.32亿美元至59.3亿美元，较去年同期124.07亿美元，按年减少52.2%至57%，中位数为53.53亿美元，按年减少56.9%。
综合3间券商预测，汇控今年上半年经调整除税前利润预测介乎54.05亿美元至62.43亿美元，较去年同期125.16亿美元，按年下跌50.1%至56.8%，中位数为55.66亿美元，按年减少55.5%。市场关注集团信贷减值及趋势、中美关系紧张令地缘地政风险增加、本港业务盈利前景面临众多不明朗因素，并留意管理层的业务重组计划、潜在出售欧美业务及最新营运指引。
【信贷拨备飙 观重组计划】
高盛预测汇控今年上半年列帐基准除税前利润按年跌52%至59.3亿美元，经调整除税前利润按年跌50%至62.43亿美元，料今年中期预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备，由去年中期11.4亿美元，大增3.8倍至54.67亿美元，料中期纯利46.06亿美元按年跌近54%，每股中期盈利0.17美仙，不派中期息，估计净利息收入147.72亿美元按年倒退3.2%，料今年上半年营业支出159.46亿美元，按年跌7%。
高盛估计汇控截至今年第二季风险加权资产8,760亿美元，按年跌1%(按季升2%)，估计至今年第二季普通股权一级比率14.4%，料至第二季有形股本回报率回落至4%(2019年第二为12%、今年第一季为4.2%)。而该行预期汇控第二季业绩将显示其盈利韧性，管理层或表示对下半年及2021年在信贷成本及盈利上的改善。该行预期汇控盈利明年将接近翻倍，在2022年再增长额外约两成。该行亦预期汇控明年恢复派息及进行股份回购。
摩根大通预测汇控今年上半年列帐基准除税前利润按年跌57%至53.32亿美元，估计中期经调整除税前利润预测54.05亿美元按年下滑56.8%，料今年上半年信贷损失及其他信贷减值大增至61.55亿美元，估计旗下香港业务盈利前景受压，受到新冠疫情、中美关系紧张令地缘政治风险上升，并相信汇控面临重组业务压力将加剧。
券商│今年上半年列帐基准除税前利润预测│按年变幅
高盛│59.3亿美元│-52.2%
摩根士丹利│53.53亿美元│-56.9%
摩根大通│53.32亿美元│-57%
按汇控2019年上半年列帐基准除税前利润124.07亿美元计算。
--------------------
综合3间券商预测，汇控今年上半年经调整(Adjusted)除税前利润预测介乎54.05亿美元至62.43亿美元，较去年同期125.16亿美元，按年下跌50.1%至56.8%，中位数为55.66亿美元，按年减少55.5%。
券商│今年上半年经调整除税前利润预测│按年变幅
高盛│62.43亿美元│-50.1%
摩根士丹利│55.66亿美元│-55.5%
摩根大通│54.05亿美元│-56.8%
按汇控2019年上半年经调整除税前利润125.16亿美元计算。
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