大摩:料友邦保險(1299.HK)上半年新業務價值跌29% 評級增持
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,受新冠肺炎疫情影響,香港及東盟市場的封鎖時間延長,預料友邦保險(1299.HK)上半年的新業務價值將按年跌29%,第二季表現或會略差過第一季。在波動的環境下,收益率及股票收益下降,税後營運溢利(OPAT)的增長或會放緩至3%。該行予集團目標價78港元,評級為增持。
大摩預計,在不確定性較大的環境下,集團的股息政策將不會有任何的變化,並估計中期股息將與OPAT保持一致,增長率為3%。中國業務的復甦將無法抵銷其他地區的大幅下滑,而外匯影響則可能僅1個百分點。集團上半年的首年標準保費將按年跌22%,而利潤率將收縮6個百分點至60%,主要由於線上銷售限制了代理銷售高利潤率保障型產品的能力,以及銷售疲弱亦可能導致費用超支,尤其是香港。
該行又指,按地區而言,香港可能遭受最大的損失,新業務價值估計跌58%,因為內地旅客業務在第二季或接近零的水平。雖然中國一直處於復甦階段,但預料第二季的跌幅只會減少。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.