工业金属行业专题报告：库存周期视角下，有色商品价格怎么走？
机构：西南证券
投资要点
当前中美库存周期运行到哪个位置？库存周期影响经济短周期波动，而存货调整相对下游需求滞后。2020 年 6 月份以来，从 PMI、发电量等和工业生产活动密切相关的高频数据均在持续改善，显示国内经济复苏态势持续向好。根据库存周期运行规律，中国在 2020.3 进入被动去库阶段，大概率在 2021Q1-Q2进入“主动补库”阶段。美国理论上 2020.1 将进入被动补库阶段，但全球疫情影响放缓库存周期运行节奏，大概率 2021Q2 进入“主动补库”阶段。中美两大经济体“主动补库”共振预计将在 2021Q2-Q3 出现，根据历史经验，库存周期景气向上背景下，有色商品价格大概率将趋势上行。
有色商品“V型反弹”可以持续？伴随全球疫情扩散，新增病例持续抬升，带来两个影响：（1）各国纷纷进入危机应对模式，全球性流动性泛滥。（2）资源国资源供给受到冲击。贵金属、铜等流动性敏感、供需错配突出的板块出现 V型反弹。复盘 2020.3-2020.7：商品价格完成“流动性危机预期解除”+“国内复产需求弱复苏”。 全球流动性极度宽松，纷纷进入疫情危机应对模式下。而当前权益的逻辑演绎路径将是：（1）风格切换，估值修复（2）PPI触底回升，交易通胀及经济阶段性“过热”逻辑（3）全球补库需求共振，金属价格创新高，计算价格弹性阶段。2020 年下半年很可能出现状况是：铜价小幅上涨甚至阶段性调整，而权益大幅上涨，完成兑现预期演绎。
当前的供需格局？——供给紧，需求提。海外库存增加，国内去化速度快，全球整体显性库存低位运行“铜”库存环比变化值显示，需求比供应恢复更快。商品价格趋势上涨或可持续到明年底， 权益投资也将由 “估值修复”切换到“跨年度级别”的趋势行情。若 2021Q2-Q3 中美两大经济体进入“主动补库共振周期”，需求共振拉动工业品第二波上涨。商品目前的供需状况类似2016.7-2018.5 初期阶段。我们认为有色商品价格反弹可以持续到 2021 年全年，而最近 5 年的金属价格高点也将出现在 2021 年。若 2021 年全球流动性宽松未出现边际收紧状态，美元仍处于弱势周期中，受益流动性宽松、弱势美元及通胀预期上行，叠加供需错配缺口扩大的铜金属价格或将超过最近 10 年的价格高点。
横向对比工业金属，我们更看好未来的铜价趋势上涨。从六种有色工业金属的库存绝对值角度来看，当前全球的库存水平均处于历史低位，且呈现“外增内减状态”。从“铜”的库存环比变化值显示，需求比供应恢复更快，库存快速去化的驱动在供给端。
相关受益标的。建议关注紫金矿业、江西铜业、云南铜业、索通发展、云铝股份。
风险提示：海外疫情持续蔓延风险，全球货币政策边际收紧，海外复工复产进度不及预期。
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