惠誉:新型肺炎疫情致中国银行信贷效率改善措施受阻
评级机构惠誉表示,於新型肺炎疫情冲击下,中国改善金融系统信贷效率的举措将暂时受挫,惟近年银行可能由累积减值风险较高的信贷而出现的资本缺口则有所趋稳。该行估计,去年底相关信贷余额占整体贷款比例或高达15%至22%,对应金融系统9.5万亿元人民币(下同)至19.5万亿元之资本缺口,相当於中国GDP的10%至20%。
该行指,新型肺炎导致的经济增长放缓,加上为了应对疫情采取的抗疫措施需要提高信贷增速来支持,将令中国的信贷效率降至2015年以来的最低水平,预计今年底中国金融系统的杠杆率将会达到GDP的265%,随着经济复苏,明年有关指标应会趋稳。政府持续遏制影子银行活动的举措,及银行扩大零售信贷的投放应有助信贷效率恢复。
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