越秀交通基建(01052.HK)：中部戰略初現規模，新購路產潛力不俗，給予“強烈推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：強烈推薦
公司是廣東省越秀集團旗下的交通基建平台，實際控制人為廣州市國資委。公司旗下共運營15個高速公路項目，其中控股項目總收費里程為533.6公里，聯營及合營公路里程約為77.3公里。
外省收購持續推進，多個重要項目皆實現良好收益：公司控股路產除廣州北二環外，皆位於廣東省以外地區，跨省收購路產是公司主要的再投資方式。公司在路產收購方面有獨到的見解，近年來最主要的兩次投資（尉許高速與隨嶽南高速）都獲得了不俗的收益。
看好湖北九省通衢資質，“中部戰略”繼續深化：湖北隨嶽南與漢孝高速的投資皆實現良好收益，堅定了公司推進“中部戰略”的決心。去年公司大舉收購湖北地區的三條路產。
我們認為新購路產價格合理，且區位優秀，具有較大的增長潛力。平行路產改擴建、周邊道路通車帶來的貫通效應以及鄂州機場投入使用等因素有望帶來收入端的快速增長。我們預計新購路產通過債務替換以及自身收入增長能夠於2021年扭虧為盈，後續將帶動公司盈利實現大幅增長。穩定的分紅策略切實保障了投資者的利益：公司分紅策略相當穩健，多年來除遭遇重大政策影響的年份外（2012年節假日免費政策），皆實現了分紅金額的正增長。分紅率多年來穩定在50%以上，累計分紅率僅次於寧滬高速與浙江滬杭甬。
盈利預測與投資建議：我們預計公司2020-2022年淨利潤分別為5.11、12.41和15.28億元，對應EPS分別為0.31、0.74和0.91元。當前股價對應2020-2022年PE值分別為14.75、6.08和4.93倍。假設公司維持50%左右的分紅率，則現有股價對應2021與2022年的股息率將高達8.2%和10.3%，具備較高的配置價值。我們首次覆蓋公司，給予“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：行業政策出現重大變化，經濟增速下滑、收購路產車流量不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
