《业绩前瞻》券商料渣打(02888.HK)中期税前溢利跌近37% 关注信贷减值
渣打集团(02888.HK)将於本周四(30日)公布截至今年6月底止中期业绩，市场料新冠疫情情会对亚洲市场带来影响，期内市场弱势及料贷款拨备将上升，本网综合4间券商预测，料渣打集团今年上半年法定表现(Statutory)除税前溢利料介乎11.11亿至16.26亿美元，较2019年同期24.14亿美元，按年减少32.6%至54%，中位数为15.23亿美元，按年跌36.9%。投资者将关注渣打管理层给予最新营运指引、收入与支出增长差距(JAWS)能否保持正数，但同时其信贷质量保持警惕。
综合3间券商预测，渣打集团今年上半年基本表现(Underlying)经营收入料介乎77.92亿至80.94亿美元，按年增加1.2%至5.2%，中位数为78.05亿美元，按年增加1.4%。
摩根士丹利预测渣打今年上半年法定表现除税前溢利按年跌54%至11.11亿美元，料中期基本表现经营收入预测为78.05亿美元按年升1.4%。该行料渣打今年第二法定表现除税前溢利2.25亿美元按年跌近81%，主要受贷款拨备增加所影响(料次季贷款拨备8.2亿美元，对比2019第二季为1.95亿美元)，估计第二季基本表现经营收入按年跌10.4%至34.78亿美元。
杰富瑞预计渣打上半年法定除税前溢利按年跌32.6%至16.26亿美元，料法定税後纯利11.25亿美元按年跌24.8%，基本经营收入按年升5.2%至80.94亿美元。该行表示，美联储低息政策及本港银行同意拆息上升，将吸引资金流入香港并产生更多经济机会，本港银行净息差亦从中受益。香港股市波动亦为银行产生造市业务机会，同时中国经济复苏对香港的利好不能忽略。
券商│今年上半年法定表现除税前溢利│按年变幅
杰富瑞│16.26亿美元│-32.6%
花旗│16.19亿美元│-32.9%
摩根大通│14.26亿美元│-40.9%
摩根士丹利│11.11亿美元│-54%
按渣打2019年上半年法定表现除税前溢利24.14亿美元计算
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综合3间券商预测，渣打集团今年上半年基本表现经营收入料介乎77.92亿至80.94亿美元，按年增加1.2%至5.2%，中位数为78.05亿美元，按年增加1.4%。
券商│今年上半年基本表现经营收入预测│按年变幅
杰富瑞│80.94亿美元│+5.2%
摩根士丹利│78.05亿美元│+1.4%
摩根大通│77.92亿美元│+1.2%
按渣打2019年上半年基本表现经营收入76.96亿美元计算
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