眾安在線(06060.HK)：價值切換：從保險到“保險+醫院“，維持"買入"評級，目標價68港元
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
目標價：68港元
2020 年中期業績超出預期，但風景不限於此
眾安在線於近日披露了其中期業績前瞻，其上半年的歸母淨利潤相較於去年同期的 0.94 億元，錄得不低於 100%的增長，但這僅僅只是傳統業務的標誌性事件。集團於昨日正式上線了尊享 e生 2020（門急診版），在最高 600 萬保額的基礎上，覆蓋門急診醫療保障，且有專業醫生提供全天的一對一問診服務。該產品的發佈具有非常重要的戰略意義。
大健康業務：路徑清晰，優勢明顯
目前，資本正在追逐互聯網“保險+醫院”的這個賽道，而眾安在線是為數不多的黑馬之一。參考以上產品，集團互聯網醫院的發展路徑逐漸清晰，先從其健康險業務導流，催化形成“保險+醫院”的閉環生態。相比同業，眾安在線的優勢非常明顯：（1）集團同時擁有互聯網健康險業務和互聯網醫院業務，可以持續探索兩者的合作模式，擁有先行先試的優勢，且如果模式一旦走通，前途將不可限量；（2）集團具備非常強的定向導流優勢，可以扶持其互聯網醫院迅速成長。截止於2019年末，眾安旗下的健康生態一共擁有 5000 萬用户，其中付費用户是1670 萬人；（3）集團基本觸達了全部的互聯網新場景，在 2019 年服務了 4.86 億用户，未來可望進一步為其互聯網醫院導流。
投資建議：估值上升的潛力仍然非常之大
眾安在線正在打造閉環生態，而兩者的競爭優勢是互相促進的，所以隨着其戰略的逐步兑現，其估值邏輯將逐步切換為適用於互聯網企業的成長邏輯。短時間的盈利不是核心，關鍵在於其閉環生態的成長前景及行業地位。即使未來保險業務以虧損的態勢來為互聯網醫院跑馬圈地，只要閉環生態的成長前景明朗，就必然會持續得到資本的追逐。我們上調盈利預測，預計 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤為 5.2/9.0/13.0 億元，攤薄 EPS為 0.35/0.61/0.88 元，當前股價對應 PE為 114/66/46x，維持“買入”評級，且參考同業估值，短期內我們取保守的 PB估值，將目標價設為 68元。風險提示：（1）戰略執行存在偏差；（2）互聯網醫院的擴張不及預期。
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